Modeling the population dynamics of cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) over a wide area in northern China
Modeling the population dynamics of cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) over a wide area in northern China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.04.003
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发表时间：
2010-07-24
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Wu, Kongming
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Feng, Hongqiang;Gould, Fred;Wu, Kongming
棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera(鳞翅目：夜蛾科)是中国北部地区最严重的农作物害虫之一，需要对其进行准确的预测和防治。建立了模拟中国北部大范围棉铃虫种群动态的计算机模型。审议的区域覆盖了观察到棉铃虫严重暴发的12个省。在该模型中，害虫的发育是由当地环境温度驱动的，成虫在区域之间远距离迁徙，并在区域内选择产卵的首选寄主。该模型考虑了棉花、小麦、玉米、花生、大豆等6种寄主类型和由其他所有次生寄主组成的单一寄主类别。卵和幼虫的存活率基于生命表数据，并模拟为寄主类型、寄主物候和温度的函数。滞育的发生取决于幼虫期经历的温度和光周期。非滞育蛹的存活率是降雨量的非线性函数，越冬存活率是温度的非线性函数。当种群密度超过区域内寄主作物的经济门槛时，就会使用杀虫剂。模型输出与灯光诱捕器数据的比较表明，我们的模型反映了大面积的害虫种群动态，可用于中国北部地区害虫防治新策略的试验。(C)2010爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
The cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is one of the most serious crop pests in northern China, calling for accurate prediction of pest outbreaks and strategies for pest control. A computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics of H. armigera over a wide area in northern China. The area considered covers 12 provinces where serious outbreaks of H. armigera have been observed. In this model, pest development is driven by local ambient temperature, and adults migrate long distances between regions and select preferred hosts for oviposition within a region. Six types of host including cotton, wheat, corn, peanut, soybean and a single category composed of all other minor hosts are considered in this model. Survival rates of eggs and larvae are based on life-table data, and simulated as a function of host type, host phenology and temperature. The incidence of diapause depends on temperature and photoperiod experienced during the larval stage. Survival rate of non-diapause pupae is a nonlinear function of rainfall, and overwinter survival rate is a nonlinear function of temperature. Insecticide is applied when population density exceeds the economic threshold on a host crop within a region. Comparisons of model output with light-trap data indicate that our model reflects the pest population dynamics over a wide area, and could potentially be used for testing novel pest control strategies in northern China. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.