Time series analysis reveals synchrony and asynchrony between conflict management effort and increasing large grazing bird populations in northern Europe
Time series analysis reveals synchrony and asynchrony between conflict management effort and increasing large grazing bird populations in northern Europe
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DOI：
10.1111/conl.12450
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发表时间：
2019-01-01
影响因子：
8.5
通讯作者：
Bunnefeld, Nils
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cusack, Jeremy J.;Duthie, A. Brad;Bunnefeld, Nils
管理野生动物保护与农业做法之间的冲突往往涉及实施旨在减少野生动物对作物影响的成本的战略。这些战略取得成功的关键是要认识到，管理工作的变化与影响程度的变化是同步的，但这种期望从未得到评估。我们评估的背景下，农业和大型放牧鸟类在北方欧洲的五个种群之间的冲突的人口计数和管理工作的时间序列之间的同步水平。我们揭示了人口数量变化与人口收获、货币支付或恐吓行为相关的影响管理工作之间的同步性和不一致性模式。这种变化可能是由于不同的管理目标，管理决策和人口监测之间存在滞后，以及在案例研究中使用的预测模型不一致。总体而言，我们的研究结果强调了管理层需要对目标物种数量的变化做出更适应和及时的反应，以免意外地增加社会冲突并危及野生动物种群的状况。
The management of conflicts between wildlife conservation and agricultural practices often involves the implementation of strategies aimed at reducing the cost of wildlife impacts on crops. Vital to the success of these strategies is the perception that changes in management efforts are synchronized relative to changes in impact levels, yet this expectation is never evaluated. We assess the level of synchrony between time series of population counts and management effort in the context of conflicts between agriculture and five populations of large grazing birds in northern Europe. We reveal inconsistent patterns of synchrony and asynchrony between changes in population counts and impact management effort relating to population harvesting, monetary payments, or scaring practices. This variation is likely due to differing management aims, the existence of lags between management decisions and population monitoring, and the inconsistent use of predictive models across case studies. Overall, our findings highlight the need for more adaptive and timely responses of management to changes in target species numbers so as not to unexpectedly increase social conflicts and jeopardize the status of wildlife populations.