Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China
Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2011.06.058
复制
发表时间：
2011-10
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Jianzhou Wang;Yao Dong;Jie Wu;Ren Mu;He Jiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jianzhou Wang;Yao Dong;Jie Wu;Ren Mu;He Jiang
随着经济的快速增长和工业的扩张，中国消耗的煤炭比任何其他国家都多。因此，预测中国的煤炭产量，以帮助管理者做出有关中国旨在减少碳排放的政策以及有关中国未来对国产和进口煤炭的需求的战略决策，就显得尤为重要。这些决定必须考虑到预测结果，将对国家和国际产生重要影响。本文提出了三种基于灰色系统理论的改进预测模型：离散灰色模型（DGM）、滚动DGM（RDGM）和p值RDGM。利用1949 - 2005年中国煤炭产量的统计数据，验证了改进模型对2006 - 2010年煤炭产量预测的有效性。模型的性能表明，p值RDGM在这段历史时间内具有最佳的预测性能。此外，本文预测了2011年至2015年的煤炭产量，并提出了一些政策，以减少碳和其他排放量，伴随着预测的煤炭产量的增加。
With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production.