Projected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields.
Projected increases in surface melt and ice loss for the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-021-95725-w
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发表时间：
2021-08-19
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Quincey DJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bravo C;Bozkurt D;Ross AN;Quincey DJ
近几十年来，北方巴塔哥尼亚冰原（NPI）和南巴塔哥尼亚冰原（SPI）的冰量损失增加。鉴于巴塔哥尼亚冰川萎缩的影响，对冰原未来潜在的表面物质平衡（SMB）进行评估至关重要。我们试图通过模拟1976年至2050年这两个冰原的SMB，使用区域气候模型数据（RegCM4.6）和一系列排放情景来提供这种评估。对于NPI，减少1.5 m w. e.（RCP2.6）和1.9 m w.e.与历史时期（1976-2005年）相比，2005-2050年期间平均SMB中的RCP8.5估计值。对于SPI，估计减少量在1.1 m w. e.之间。（RCP2.6）和1.5 m w.e.（RCP 8.5）。最近的额叶消融估计表明，SPI中的平均SMB正偏置1.5 m w.e.，这可能是由于累积高估。如果假设最近的锋面消融率将继续下去，冰损失和海平面上升的贡献将增加。向较低SMB的趋势主要由表面熔体的增加来解释。预计冰解冰川将出现与融水可用性增加有关的正冰损失反馈。
The Northern Patagonian Icefield (NPI) and the Southern Patagonian Icefield (SPI) have increased their ice mass loss in recent decades. In view of the impacts of glacier shrinkage in Patagonia, an assessment of the potential future surface mass balance (SMB) of the icefields is critical. We seek to provide this assessment by modelling the SMB between 1976 and 2050 for both icefields, using regional climate model data (RegCM4.6) and a range of emission scenarios. For the NPI, reductions between 1.5 m w.e. (RCP2.6) and 1.9 m w.e. (RCP8.5) were estimated in the mean SMB during the period 2005–2050 compared to the historical period (1976–2005). For the SPI, the estimated reductions were between 1.1 m w.e. (RCP2.6) and 1.5 m w.e. (RCP8.5). Recently frontal ablation estimates suggest that mean SMB in the SPI is positively biased by 1.5 m w.e., probably due to accumulation overestimation. If it is assumed that frontal ablation rates of the recent past will continue, ice loss and sea-level rise contribution will increase. The trend towards lower SMB is mostly explained by an increase in surface melt. Positive ice loss feedbacks linked to increasing in meltwater availability are expected for calving glaciers.
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影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Bravo, C.;Quincey, D. J.;Silva, A.
通讯作者：
Silva, A.
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
De Angelis, Hernan
通讯作者：
De Angelis, Hernan
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Garreaud, R.;Lopez, P.;Rojas, M.
通讯作者：
Rojas, M.
影响因子：
1.1
作者：
Giorgi, F.;Coppola, E.;Brankovic, C.
通讯作者：
Brankovic, C.
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Bown, Francisca;Rivera, Andres;Moffat, Carlos
通讯作者：
Moffat, Carlos