The Geography and Channels of Diffusion at the World's Technology Frontier
The Geography and Channels of Diffusion at the World's Technology Frontier
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世界技术前沿的地理分布和传播渠道
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发表时间：
2001
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通讯作者：
W. Keller
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文献类型：
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作者：
W. Keller
人均收入的趋同取决于技术知识溢出是全球性的还是地方性的。全球溢出效应有利于趋同，而地理上有限的知识扩散范围可能导致人均收入水平持续不同的国家的区域集群。本文估计了地理距离对技术扩散的重要性，这种重要性如何随着时间的推移而变化，以及国际贸易、外国直接投资和通信流是否是重要的扩散渠道。分析的基础是审查1970年至1995年期间世界七个主要工业化国家的研究与开发支出对生产率的影响。首先，我发现技术扩散的范围受到距离的严重限制：技术的地理半衰期，即一半技术消失的距离，估计只有1,200公里。第二，从1970年代初到1990年代，技术知识变得更加全球化。第三，我估计贸易模式占双边技术扩散差异的大部分，而外国直接投资和语言技能差异各占约15%。最后，这三个通道一起占了几乎全部的本地化效应，否则将归因于地理距离。
Convergence in per capita income turns on whether technological knowledge spillovers are global or local. Global spillovers favor convergence, while a geographically limited scope of knowledge diffusion can lead to regional clusters of countries with persistently different levels of income per capita. This paper estimates the importance of geographic distance for technology diffusion, how this changed over time, and whether international trade, foreign direct investment, and communication flows serve as important channels of diffusion. The analysis is based on examining the productivity effects of R&D expenditures in the world's seven major industrialized countries between 1970 and 1995. First, I find that the scope of technology diffusion is severely limited by distance: the geographic half-life of technology, the distance at which half of the technology has disappeared, is estimated to be only 1,200 kilometers. Second, technological knowledge has become a lot more global from the early 1970s to the 1990s. Third, I estimate that trade patterns account for the majority of all differences in bilateral technology diffusion, whereas foreign direct investment and language skills differences contribute circa 15% each. Lastly, these three channels together account for almost the entire localization effect that would otherwise be attributed to geographic distance.