Estimating climate sensitivity and future temperature in the presence of natural climate variability
Estimating climate sensitivity and future temperature in the presence of natural climate variability
复制标题
在存在自然气候变化的情况下估计气候敏感性和未来温度
DOI：
10.1002/2013gl058532
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
R. Knutti
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Huber;U. Beyerle;R. Knutti
我们使用地球系统模式的初始条件集合作为气候系统的多个实现，以评估在“完美”条件下使用复杂性降低的气候模型得出的气候敏感性和未来温度变化的估计。在我们的设置中，由于内部变率，平衡气候敏感性的平均值和最有可能的估计值变化约0.4-0.8°C（±1σ）。对瞬态气候响应的估计差异要小得多;然而，瞬态响应对未来温度预测的扩散和偏差的影响随着提前时间的增加而增加。未来的温度预测显示出对中心范围更鲁棒（即，而对于一个人来说，这是一个很大的挑战。这里提出的估计数在很大程度上取决于气候系统的特定实现、对估计数和信号的新限制以及海洋热吸收观测中不断减少的不确定性之间的微妙平衡。
We use an initial condition ensemble of an Earth System Model as multiple realizations of the climate system to evaluate estimates of climate sensitivity and future temperature change derived with a climate model of reduced complexity under “perfect” conditions. In our setup, the mean and most likely estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity vary by about 0.4–0.8°C (±1σ) due to internal variability. Estimates of the transient climate response vary much less; however, the effect of the spread and bias in the transient response on future temperature projections increases with lead time. Future temperature projections are shown to be more robust for central ranges (i.e., likely range) than for single percentiles. The estimates presented here strongly depend on a delicate balance between a particular realization of the climate system, the emerging constraints on the estimates as well as on the signal, and the decreasing uncertainties in ocean heat uptake observations.