Tropical cyclones and climate change
Tropical cyclones and climate change
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.004
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发表时间：
2019-12
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Kevin J. e. Walsh;Suzana J. Camargo;T. Knutson;J. Kossin;Tsz‐cheung Lee;Hiroyuki Murakami;C. Patricola
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kevin J. e. Walsh;Suzana J. Camargo;T. Knutson;J. Kossin;Tsz‐cheung Lee;Hiroyuki Murakami;C. Patricola
自2014年12月召开第八届热带气旋国际研讨会（IWTC-8）以来，我们对热带气旋（TC）特征、气候和气候变化之间关系的认识取得了进展。新的观测分析揭示了热带气旋最大强度纬度和热带气旋平移速度的趋势。气候模型显示出模拟观测到的热带气旋气候及其区域变化的能力不断增强。在大多数热带气旋气候模拟中，海气相互作用过程的代表性有限仍然是一个问题。对未来热带气旋行为的共识预测继续表明热带气旋数量减少、最大强度增加以及与热带气旋相关的降雨量增加。假设所有其他因素相同，未来海平面上升将加剧风暴潮对沿海地区的影响。研究还开始估计迄今为止发生的气候变化对热带气旋的影响。对未来的研究方向提出了建议。
Since the Eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-8), held in December 2014, progress has been made in our understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics, climate and climate change. New analysis of observations has revealed trends in the latitude of maximum TC intensity and in TC translation speed. Climate models are demonstrating an increasing ability to simulate the observed TC climatology and its regional variations. The limited representation of air-sea interaction processes in most climate simulations of TCs remains an issue. Consensus projections of future TC behavior continue to indicate decreases in TC numbers, increases in their maximum intensities and increases in TC-related rainfall. Future sea level rise will exacerbate the impact of storm surge on coastal regions, assuming all other factors equal. Studies have also begun to estimate the effect on TCs of the climate change that has occurred to date. Recommendations are made regarding future research directions.