Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14
Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2314
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发表时间：
2014-09-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Allen, Myles R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huntingford, Chris;Marsh, Terry;Allen, Myles R.
2013/14年冬季，英国大部分地区反复遭遇强降雨和洪水。这对房地产和交通基础设施产生了相当大的影响。一个关键的问题是，化石燃料的燃烧是否正在改变极端事件的频率，如果是的话，改变的程度如何。我们评估了冬季洪水的规模，然后回顾了影响英国降雨的广泛的地球系统驱动因素。对于这些特定的风暴，一些司机可能会被忽视，而其他司机可能已经增加了发生的风险。我们讨论了将降雨转化为河流流量和洪水的水文模型的要求。为了确定任何总体变化的洪水风险，我们认为，准确的建模需要捕捉到对英国降雨与一系列广泛因素相互作用的不断变化的理解。这包括多尺度大气、海洋、太阳和海冰特征以及土地利用和人口结构的变化。为了建立工业化前和当代大气温室气体浓度水平的极值概率分布，可能需要对这类模型进行整体模拟。
During the winter of 2013/14, much of the UK experienced repeated intense rainfall events and flooding. This had a considerable impact on property and transport infrastructure. A key question is whether the burning of fossil fuels is changing the frequency of extremes, and if so to what extent. We assess the scale of the winter flooding before reviewing a broad range of Earth system drivers affecting UK rainfall. Some drivers can be potentially disregarded for these specific storms whereas others are likely to have increased their risk of occurrence. We discuss the requirements of hydrological models to transform rainfall into river flows and flooding. To determine any general changing flood risk, we argue that accurate modelling needs to capture evolving understanding of UK rainfall interactions with a broad set of factors. This includes changes to multiscale atmospheric, oceanic, solar and sea-ice features, and land-use and demographics. Ensembles of such model simulations may be needed to build probability distributions of extremes for both pre-industrial and contemporary concentration levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases.