Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes
Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes
复制标题
DOI：
10.1126/science.1180568
复制
发表时间：
2010-01-22
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Held, Isaac M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bender, Morris A.;Knutson, Thomas R.;Held, Isaac M.
最近的几个模型表明，随着气候变暖，大西洋热带气旋的频率可能会降低。然而，这些模型无法重现3级或更高强度的风暴。我们采用一种降尺度策略，利用一个在当前条件下能生成逼真的强烈飓风活动分布的业务飓风预测模型，探究了未来全球变暖对大西洋飓风的影响。当降尺度基于18个全球气候变化预测的集合平均值时，该模型预测，到21世纪末，尽管热带气旋的总体频率会降低，但4级和5级风暴的频率几乎会翻倍。预计增幅最大的区域将出现在北纬20度以北的西大西洋。
Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20 degrees N.