Risk factors for disease progression in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study
Risk factors for disease progression in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study
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DOI：
10.1080/23744235.2020.1759817
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发表时间：
2020-05-05
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Hu, Zhongjie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hou, Wei;Zhang, Wei;Hu, Zhongjie
背景：研究与2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）患者病情加重和临床结局相关的风险因素。方法：我们对COVID-19病例疾病进展的危险因素进行了回顾性研究。根据临床类型，将患者分为进展组和改善组。采用多因素Logistic回归和ROC曲线分析影响疾病进展的危险因素。结果如下：本研究共纳入101例患者; 17例患者发生疾病进展，84例患者好转，6例患者转入重症监护室（ICU），5例患者死亡。获得阴性核酸结果的平均时间为12.5 ± 5.0天。多因素Logistic分析显示年龄（OR，0.104; p = .002）、C反应蛋白（CRP）（OR，0.093; p < .001）和淋巴细胞计数（OR，3.397; p = .022）是疾病进展的危险因素。ROC曲线分析显示，年龄、CRP和淋巴细胞计数对疾病进展的AUC分别为0.873、0.911和0.817。结论：年龄较大导致CRP升高和淋巴细胞计数降低，是COVID-19进展的潜在危险因素。这可能有助于识别早期病情恶化的患者。
Background: To investigate the risk factors related to aggravation and clinical outcomes in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. Methods: We performed a retrospective study on the risk factors for disease progression of cases with COVID-19. Based on the clinical types, the patients were divided into a progression group and an improvement group. Multivariable logistic regression and ROC curve analysis were performed to explore the risk factors for disease progression. Results: A total of 101 patients were included in this study; diseases progression occurred in 17 patients, 84 patients improved, 6 were transferred to intensive care unit (ICU), and 5 died. The mean time to obtain negative nucleic acid results was 12.5 +/- 5.0 days. Multivariate logistic analysis indicated that age (OR, 0.104; p = .002), C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR, 0.093; p < .001) and lymphocyte count (OR, 3.397; p = .022) were risk factors for disease progression. ROC curve analysis revealed that the AUC of age, CRP and lymphocyte count for disease progression were 0.873, 0.911 and 0.817, respectively. Conclusions: Older age increased CRP and decreased lymphocyte count resulted in potential risk factors for COVID-19 progression. This may be helpful in identifying patients whose condition worsens at an early stage.