A pandemic response to a disease of predominantly seasonal intensity
A pandemic response to a disease of predominantly seasonal intensity
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DOI：
10.5694/j.1326-5377.2010.tb03423.x
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发表时间：
2010-01-18
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Kelly, Heath A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kelly, Heath A.
自从2009年4月下旬认识到猪流感大流行以来，卫生专业人员、政治家和公众需要知道2009年H1N1流感大流行（猪流感）与其他季节性流感毒株相比有多严重。维多利亚州的经验表明，2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行在社区的传播最多类似于流感在中度季节性活动季节的传播。我们没有对总病例数的估计，但我们知道大多数感染都是轻微的。然而，尽管社区中的疾病似乎很轻微，住院的风险也很低，但住院的猪流感患者中有很大一部分需要重症监护。猪流感的死亡人数没有季节性流感的死亡人数多，尽管死于猪流感的人更年轻。由于我们不了解实验室确认的季节性流感造成的疾病负担（与模拟的疾病负担相反），我们无法将应对大流行的措施建立在季节性流感和大流行性流感的知情比较上。我们可能不需要对一种疾病采取大流行应对措施，尽管它的足迹不同，但主要是季节性的。积累关于实验室确诊流感的高质量证据，以指导我们针对季节性和大流行性流感的干预政策，这一点至关重要。MJA 2010;192: 81 - 83
From the recognition of the swine flu pandemic in late April 2009, health professionals, politicians and the public needed to know how serious pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (swine flu) was in relation to other seasonal strains of influenza.The Victorian experience suggests that the circulation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza in the community was at most like influenza circulation in a season of moderate seasonal activity.We have no estimate of the total case count, but we know most infections have been mild. However, while disease in the community appears mild, and the risk of hospitalisation is low, a high proportion of patients hospitalised with swine flu required intensive care.Deaths from swine flu have not been as numerous as the modelled deaths from seasonal influenza, although people dying from swine flu are younger.Because we do not understand the laboratory-confirmed burden of disease due to seasonal influenza (as opposed to the modelled burden of disease), we could not base our response to the pandemic on an informed comparison of seasonal and pandemic influenza.We may not have needed a pandemic response to a disease that, although it has a different footprint, has been predominantly of seasonal intensity.It is critical to accumulate quality evidence about laboratory-confirmed influenza to guide our intervention policies for both seasonal and pandemic influenza. MJA 2010; 192: 81-83