Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change
Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1514
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发表时间：
2012-08-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Huelber, Karl
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dullinger, Stefan;Gattringer, Andreas;Huelber, Karl
到目前为止，气候变化下山地植物范围损失的定量估计主要依赖于物种栖息地变化的静态地理预测（1-3）。在这里，我们使用一个混合模型（4），将这种预测与人口统计和种子传播的模拟相结合，预测欧洲阿尔卑斯山150种高山植物物种的气候驱动时空动态。该模型预测，到21世纪末，平均范围大小将减少44-50%，这与最“乐观”的静态模型（49%）的预测相似。然而，混合模型也表明，种群动态将落后于气候趋势，并且在21世纪末，平均40%的范围将变得气候不适合相应的物种，从而产生灭绝债务（5，6）。令人担忧的是，阿尔卑斯山特有的物种似乎面临着最大的范围损失。这些结果提醒人们不要从21世纪世纪观察到的适度范围大小减少中得出乐观的结论，因为它们可能掩盖气候变暖对山地植物更严重的长期影响。
Quantitative estimates of the range loss of mountain plants under climate change have so far mostly relied on static geographical projections of species' habitat shifts(1-3). Here, we use a hybrid model(4) that combines such projections with simulations of demography and seed dispersal to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. This model predicts average range size reductions of 44-50% by the end of the twenty-first century, which is similar to projections from the most 'optimistic' static model (49%). However, the hybrid model also indicates that population dynamics will lag behind climatic trends and that an average of 40% of the range still occupied at the end of the twenty-first century will have become climatically unsuitable for the respective species, creating an extinction debt(5,6). Alarmingly, species endemic to the Alps seem to face the highest range losses. These results caution against optimistic conclusions from moderate range size reductions observed during the twenty-first century as they are likely to belie more severe longer-term effects of climate warming on mountain plants.