Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes.
Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes.
复制标题
相对于SARS-COV-2变体和疫苗接种通行证，COVID-19的风险评估。
DOI：
10.1038/s43856-022-00084-w
复制
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Szczurek, Ewa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Krueger, Tyll;Gogolewski, Krzysztof;Bodych, Marcin;Gambin, Anna;Giordano, Giulia;Cuschieri, Sarah;Czypionka, Thomas;Perc, Matjaz;Petelos, Elena;Rosinska, Magdalena;Szczurek, Ewa
许多国家引入COVID-19疫苗接种通行证（VPs）的同时，德尔塔病毒变体在欧洲迅速占据主导地位。目前仍缺乏对它们对流行病动态的影响的全面评估。在这里，我们提出了VAP-SIRS模型，该模型考虑了对副疫苗持有者的限制可能比其他人群低，疫苗接种对感染的有效性不完善，（重新）疫苗接种率和免疫力下降，未接种疫苗的比例，以及Delta变异的传播性增加。一些基于现实参数值的疫情预测情景在两年内产生新的COVID-19感染浪潮，在流行状态下每天的病例数很高，即使没有引入副总裁并给予其持有人更多的自由。然而，适当的适应性政策可以避免不利的结果。虽然副疫苗持有人最初可以获得更多的自由，但缺乏完全的疫苗有效性和增加的传播性将需要加速（重新）接种疫苗，广泛的免疫监测和/或最小化长期共同限制。评估疫苗、其他公共卫生措施和免疫力下降对SARS-CoV-2控制的影响具有挑战性。在疫苗接种通行证的情况下尤其如此，接种疫苗的个人比未接种疫苗的人有更大的接触自由。在这里，我们使用一个数学模型来模拟各种情景，并调查以欧洲为例的国家控制COVID-19爆发的可能性。我们证明，当取消对疫苗接种通行证持有人的措施时，Alpha和Delta SARS-CoV-2变体都不可避免地导致反复爆发。较高的再接种率和较低的未接种人口比例增加了疫苗接种通行证的益处。这些观察结果对决策很重要，突出表明即使在疫情得到控制的情况下，特别是在出现令人关切的新变种时，也需要继续保持警惕。Krueger、Gogolewski和Bodych等人评估了与SARS-CoV-2变体和疫苗接种通过率相关的COVID-19流行病复发的风险。他们的模型预测，在疫苗接种计划开始后两年内可能出现新的COVID-19感染浪潮，但适当的适应性政策可以帮助避免不利结果。
The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment of their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose the VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for the VP holders than for the rest of the population, imperfect vaccination effectiveness against infection, rates of (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction of never-vaccinated, and the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant. Some predicted epidemic scenarios for realistic parameter values yield new COVID-19 infection waves within two years, and high daily case numbers in the endemic state, even without introducing VPs and granting more freedom to their holders. Still, suitable adaptive policies can avoid unfavorable outcomes. While VP holders could initially be allowed more freedom, the lack of full vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility will require accelerated (re-)vaccination, wide-spread immunity surveillance, and/or minimal long-term common restrictions. Assessing the impact of vaccines, other public health measures, and declining immunity on SARS-CoV-2 control is challenging. This is particularly true in the context of vaccination passes, whereby vaccinated individuals have more freedom of making contacts than unvaccinated ones. Here, we use a mathematical model to simulate various scenarios and investigate the likelihood of containing COVID-19 outbreaks in example European countries. We demonstrate that both Alpha and Delta SARS-CoV-2 variants inevitably lead to recurring outbreaks when measures are lifted for vaccination pass holders. High re-vaccination rates and a lowered fraction of the unvaccinated population increase the benefit of vaccination passes. These observations are important for policy making, highlighting the need for continued vigilance, even where the epidemic is under control, especially when new variants of concern emerge. Krueger, Gogolewski, and Bodych et al. assess the risk of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes. Their model predicts that new COVID-19 infection waves within two years from the onset of the vaccination program are possible but that suitable adaptive policies can help to avoid unfavorable outcomes.