Modulation models for seasonal time series and incidence tables
Modulation models for seasonal time series and incidence tables
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.3188
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发表时间：
2008-07-30
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Rau, Roland
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eilers, Paul H. C.;Gampe, Jutta;Rau, Roland
我们使用二维变系数泊松回归模型的年龄-时间网格上的每月疾病计数。由于计数的边际分布显示出非常强的和变化的年周期，正弦和余弦回归模型的周期性，但他们的系数被允许在年龄和时间平面上平滑变化。系数表面估计使用一个相对较大的张量积B样条基。使用张量积系数的行和列上的差异罚分来调整平滑度。严重的过度分散发生，使得它不可能使用赤池的信息标准或贝叶斯信息标准的基础上泊松似然。它是通过选择性加权的部分数据，并通过使用扩展的准似然。使用快速阵列算法实现了非常高效的计算。该模型适用于1959-1998年美国女性和51-100岁的呼吸系统疾病所致的每月死亡人数。版权所有（c）2008约翰威利父子有限公司。
We model monthly disease counts on an age-time grid using the two-dimensional varying-coefficient Poisson regression. Since the marginal profile of counts shows a very strong and varying annual cycle, sine and cosine regressors model periodicity, but their coefficients are allowed to vary smoothly over the age and time plane. The coefficient surfaces are estimated using a relatively large tensor product B-spline basis. Smoothness is tuned using difference penalties on the rows and columns of the tensor product coefficients. Heavy over-dispersion occurs, making it impossible to use Akaike's information criterion or Bayesian information criterion based on a Poisson likelihood. It is handled by selective weighting of part of the data and by the use of extended quasi-likelihood. Very efficient computation is achieved with fast array algorithms. The model is applied to monthly deaths due to respiratory diseases, for U.S. females during 1959-1998 and for ages 51-100. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.