Knowledge, ignorance and the evolution of complex systems
Knowledge, ignorance and the evolution of complex systems
复制标题
知识、无知和复杂系统的演化
DOI：
10.1080/02604027.2000.9972769
复制
发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Allen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Allen
本文探讨了环境方面的决策和政策基础。显然，这些应该基于对可能后果的了解和伴随的风险评估，这些风险评估涉及社会经济系统中许多相互作用的人类行为者的相关行为以及他们所嵌入的生态和物理系统。本文描述了解决这些问题的复杂系统方法，展示了为了获得有关所涉及的人类和环境系统的共同进化的任何有限知识所需的模型。几个实际的例子进行了说明，并简要介绍了模型。这些都是作为例子，说明应该需要什么才能创造必要的基础，以便以一种对整个系统的综合看法，而不是由具体学科的专家详细研究的各个部分，来进行政策和决定的探索。这为真实的利用学科专家的“知识”提供了一个框架，并将他们的狭隘观点与可能的政策选择在真实的世界中的总体实际后果联系起来。
The paper explores the basis for decision‐making and policy with regard to the Environment. Clearly these should be based on knowledge of possible consequences and accompanying risk assessments involving the linked behaviour of the many interacting human actors within a socio‐economic system and the ecological, and physical systems in which they are embedded. The paper describes the Complex Systems approach to these problems, showing the kind of models that are required in order to obtain whatever limited knowledge is possible about the co‐evolution of the human and environmental systems involved. Several practical examples are described and the models briefly presented. These are shown as examples of what should be required for the creation of the necessary basis for making policy and decision explorations with an integrated view of the system as a whole, instead of separate parts studied in detail by experts of specific disciplines. This provides a framework for making real use of the “knowledge” of disciplinary experts, and linking their narrow views to the overall, practical consequences in the real world of possible policy options.