Global, Regional, and Megacity Trends in the Highest Temperature of the Year: Diagnostics and Evidence for Accelerating Trends.
Global, Regional, and Megacity Trends in the Highest Temperature of the Year: Diagnostics and Evidence for Accelerating Trends.
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DOI：
10.1002/2017ef000709
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发表时间：
2018-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Foufoula-Georgiou E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Papalexiou SM;AghaKouchak A;Trenberth KE;Foufoula-Georgiou E
短期极端高温的趋势记录了与广泛研究的年度和季节平均日温度不同的变化维度。它们还具有重要的社会经济、环境和人类健康影响。在这里，我们对全球约9000个站点的年最高温度进行了分析，重点是量化最近50年和30年期间的空间显式重复概率。在过去50年（到2015年），全球每十年上升0.19°C，在过去30年中，每十年上升0.25°C，比年平均气温上升更快。在欧亚大陆和澳大利亚的大部分地区检测到了30年的强劲正趋势，每十年的速率高于0.60°C。在人口超过500万的城市，大多数与热有关的死亡发生，平均变化为每十年0.33°C，而一些东亚城市，巴黎，莫斯科和休斯顿经历了每十年超过0.60°C的变化。在过去30年中，年最高气温的上升速度快于年平均气温大多数特大城市显示出加速变暖，欧亚大陆的一个大区域显示出令人担忧的变暖趋势在大多数情况下，在自然气候变率下，观察到的50年和30年变暖趋势的概率极不可能超过
Trends in short‐lived high‐temperature extremes record a different dimension of change than the extensively studied annual and seasonal mean daily temperatures. They also have important socioeconomic, environmental, and human health implications. Here, we present analysis of the highest temperature of the year for approximately 9000 stations globally, focusing on quantifying spatially explicit exceedance probabilities during the recent 50‐ and 30‐year periods. A global increase of 0.19°C per decade during the past 50 years (through 2015) accelerated to 0.25°C per decade during the last 30 years, a faster increase than in the mean annual temperature. Strong positive 30‐year trends are detected in large regions of Eurasia and Australia with rates higher than 0.60°C per decade. In cities with more than 5 million inhabitants, where most heat‐related fatalities occur, the average change is 0.33°C per decade, while some east Asia cities, Paris, Moscow, and Houston have experienced changes higher than 0.60°C per decade. The highest temperature of the year increased faster than the mean annual temperature over the past 30 years Most megacities show accelerated warming and a large region in Eurasia shows alarming warming trends Exceedance probabilities of observed 50‐ and 30‐year warming trends are, in most cases, highly unlikely under natural climate variability