Forecasting Fire Season Severity in South America Using Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Forecasting Fire Season Severity in South America Using Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1209472
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发表时间：
2011-11-11
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Marlier, Miriam E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Yang;Randerson, James T.;Marlier, Miriam E.
南美洲的火灾导致森林退化，并导致与土地利用变化相关的碳排放。我们调查了南美洲火灾活动的年际变化与海面温度之间的关系。研究发现，海洋尼诺指数与亚马孙东部的年际火灾活动相关，而大西洋多年代际振荡指数与亚马孙南部和西南部的火灾活动关系更为密切。结合这两个气候指数，我们建立了一个提前期为3 ~ 5个月的区域火灾季节严重程度的实证模型。我们的方法可能有助于早期预警系统的发展，以预测亚马逊森林对火灾的脆弱性，从而实现更有效的管理，有利于气候和空气质量。
Fires in South America cause forest degradation and contribute to carbon emissions associated with land use change. We investigated the relationship between year-to-year changes in fire activity in South America and sea surface temperatures. We found that the Oceanic Nino Index was correlated with interannual fire activity in the eastern Amazon, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index was more closely linked with fires in the southern and southwestern Amazon. Combining these two climate indices, we developed an empirical model to forecast regional fire season severity with lead times of 3 to 5 months. Our approach may contribute to the development of an early warning system for anticipating the vulnerability of Amazon forests to fires, thus enabling more effective management with benefits for climate and air quality.