Intraspecific responses to climate in Pinus sylvestris
Intraspecific responses to climate in Pinus sylvestris
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DOI：
10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00516.x
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发表时间：
2002-09-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Milyutin, LI
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rehfeldt, GE;Tchebakova, NM;Milyutin, LI
在欧亚大陆和北美的47个种植地点对110个樟子松种群进行了二次回归分析，得到了5个种群特有的响应函数。这些函数根据气候预测13年高度：摄氏5度；年平均温度；摄氏0度；夏冬温差；湿度指数，摄氏5度与年平均降水量之比。利用为所有功能产生的两组独立数据验证响应函数，在实际高度和预测高度之间具有统计意义的简单相关系数高达0.81。响应函数描述了自然种群典型的差异很大的增长潜力，并表明这些增长潜力具有不同的气候最适条件。然而，人口倾向于生活在比他们的最佳气候更冷的气候中，随着气候变得更加严峻，最适气候和有人居住的气候之间的差距变得越来越大。当受到哈德利中心全球变暖情景的驱动时，这些功能描述了地理上复杂的短期生理和长期进化影响。短期影响在最温暖的气候中应该是负面的，但在最冷的气候中应该是强烈的正面影响。长期的影响最终应该会改善负面的短期影响，增强积极的影响，并随着时间的推移，大幅提高欧亚大陆大部分当代松林的生产力。实现长期收益将需要在整个地区重新分配基因类型，这一过程应该需要长达13代人，因此需要很多年。
Five population-specific response functions were developed from quadratic models for 110 populations of Pinus sylvestris growing at 47 planting sites in Eurasia and North America. The functions predict 13 year height from climate: degree-days > 5 degreesC; mean annual temperature; degree-days < 0 degreesC; summer-winter temperature differential; and a moisture index, the ratio of degree-days > 5 degreesC to mean annual precipitation. Validation of the response functions with two sets of independent data produced for all functions statistically significant simple correlations with coefficients as high as 0.81 between actual and predicted heights. The response functions described the widely different growth potentials typical of natural populations and demonstrated that these growth potentials have different climatic optima. Populations nonetheless tend to inhabit climates colder than their optima, with the disparity between the optimal and inhabited climates becoming greater as the climate becomes more severe. When driven by a global warming scenario of the Hadley Center, the functions described short-term physiologic and long-term evolutionary effects that were geographically complex. The short-term effects should be negative in the warmest climates but strongly positive in the coldest. Long-term effects eventually should ameliorate the negative short-term impacts, enhance the positive, and in time, substantially increase productivity throughout most of the contemporary pine forests of Eurasia. Realizing the long-term gains will require redistribution of genotypes across the landscape, a process that should take up to 13 generations and therefore many years.