The Demography of South Asia from the 1950s to the 2000s: A Summary of Changes and a Statistical Assessment
The Demography of South Asia from the 1950s to the 2000s: A Summary of Changes and a Statistical Assessment
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20世纪50年代至2000年代南亚人口结构：变化总结与统计评估
DOI：
10.1353/pop.0.0004
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Godfrey Rogers
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Véron;Krystyna Horko;Rosemary Kneipp;Godfrey Rogers
南亚国家（阿富汗、孟加拉国、不丹、印度、马尔代夫、尼泊尔、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡）面积不到地球表面的 4%，但 2007 年其人口总数约为 16 亿，占世界总人口的近四分之一。印度是该地区最大的国家，仅拥有 11.7 亿居民。这部编年史描绘了 20 世纪 50 年代以来的主要人口趋势，部分原因是各国发展水平的差异。他们的人口结构转变也表现出广泛的多样性。该地区没有特定的单一转型模式，就像印度也没有单一的转型模式一样，通过对印度各邦的比较可以清楚地看出这一点。除了斯里兰卡，该过程已经完成，生育率转变仍在继续，死亡率转变总体上非常提前。南亚人口增长潜力仍然很大，联合国预计到2040年该地区人口将增长6亿。未来人口变化进程对发展具有重大影响，因为大多数国家需要减少贫困和提高教育水平，同时应对城市快速增长和解决环境问题。
The countries of South Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) cover less than 4% of the Earth's surface, but their combined population of some 1.6 billion inhabitants in 2007 represents nearly a quarter of the world total. India, the largest country in the region, alone has 1.17 billion inhabitants. This chronicle charts the main demographic trends since the 1950s, which are explained in part by the countries' diverse levels of development. Their demographic transitions also exhibit broad diversity. There is no single transition model specific to the region, just as there is no single transition in India, as the comparison of its states makes clear. Except in Sri Lanka, where the process is complete, the fertility transition is ongoing, and the mortality transition is in general very advanced. The potential for demographic growth remains high in South Asia, and the United Nations expects the region's population to grow by 600 million inhabitants up to 2040. The future course of demographic change has major implications for development, since most of the countries need to reduce poverty and raise educational levels while at the same time coping with rapid urban growth and addressing environmental issues.