Sanctions or sea ice: Costs of closing the Northern Sea Route
Sanctions or sea ice: Costs of closing the Northern Sea Route
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DOI：
10.1016/j.frl.2022.103257
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发表时间：
2022-09-11
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Norchi, Charles H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goldstein, Michael A.;Lynch, Amanda H.;Norchi, Charles H.
无论是海冰还是最近对俄罗斯的制裁，都可能关闭或缩短北方海路（NSR）的使用。使用16个气候意识和航运路线来估计NSR过境的价值，我们发现关闭成本可能高达33亿美元，可能的总损失高达100亿美元。最终，制裁就像海冰一样昂贵。用于产生这些发现的估计值可能被其他研究人员用来评估未来可能的成本节约，因为气候变化继续影响全球运输。
Either sea ice or recent sanctions on Russia could close or shorten the use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Using 16 climate realizations and shipping routes to estimate the value of an NSR transit, we find that closure costs could be as high as $3.3 billion, with possible overall losses as high as $10 billion. Ultimately, sanctions are as expensive as sea ice. The estimates used to produce these findings may be used by other researchers to assess possible future cost savings as climate change continues to affect global transportation.