Integrating Risk and Resilience Approaches to Catastrophe Management in Engineering Systems
Integrating Risk and Resilience Approaches to Catastrophe Management in Engineering Systems
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01885.x
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发表时间：
2013-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Linkov, I.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Park, J.;Seager, T. P.;Linkov, I.
最近发生的自然和人为灾难，如福岛核电站、卡特里娜飓风造成的洪水、深水地平线石油泄漏、海地地震和抵押贷款衍生品危机，重新引起了人们对复原力概念的兴趣，特别是因为它涉及易受多重或连锁故障影响的复杂系统。虽然复原力的含义在不同的情况下有争议，但一般来说，复原力被理解为适应不断变化的条件而不发生形式或功能的灾难性损失的能力。在工程系统的背景下，这有时被解释为系统条件可能超过不可撤销的临界点的概率。然而，我们认为，这种方法不恰当地混淆了弹性和风险的角度表示弹性专门在风险方面。相比之下，我们将弹性描述为工程系统所做的事情的一种新兴属性，而不是系统所具有的静态属性。因此，不能仅仅通过检查组成部分来衡量系统规模的复原力。相反，弹性更好地理解为递归过程的结果，包括：感知，预期，学习和适应。在这种方法中，弹性分析可以被理解为与风险分析不同，但又是对风险分析的补充，对复杂的耦合工程系统的适应性管理具有重要意义。2011年在密西西比河流域洪水的管理进行了讨论，作为一个成功的例子和复杂的自然系统，已被工程结构广泛改变的基于服从管理的挑战。
Recent natural and man-made catastrophes, such as the Fukushima nuclear power plant, flooding caused by Hurricane Katrina, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the Haiti earthquake, and the mortgage derivatives crisis, have renewed interest in the concept of resilience, especially as it relates to complex systems vulnerable to multiple or cascading failures. Although the meaning of resilience is contested in different contexts, in general resilience is understood to mean the capacity to adapt to changing conditions without catastrophic loss of form or function. In the context of engineering systems, this has sometimes been interpreted as the probability that system conditions might exceed an irrevocable tipping point. However, we argue that this approach improperly conflates resilience and risk perspectives by expressing resilience exclusively in risk terms. In contrast, we describe resilience as an emergent property of what an engineering system does, rather than a static property the system has. Therefore, resilience cannot be measured at the systems scale solely from examination of component parts. Instead, resilience is better understood as the outcome of a recursive process that includes: sensing, anticipation, learning, and adaptation. In this approach, resilience analysis can be understood as differentiable from, but complementary to, risk analysis, with important implications for the adaptive management of complex, coupled engineering systems. Management of the 2011 flooding in the Mississippi River Basin is discussed as an example of the successes and challenges of resilience-based management of complex natural systems that have been extensively altered by engineered structures.