Applying the anomaly-based weather analysis on Beijing severe haze episodes
Applying the anomaly-based weather analysis on Beijing severe haze episodes
复制标题
基于异常的天气分析在北京严重灰霾天气中的应用
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.408
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Huang Jing
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qian Weihong;Huang Jing
烟雾弥漫的日子，如暴雨，龙卷风和冰雹风暴被认为是极端天气。基于异常的气象变量分析方法近年来已被用于极端天气的分析和预测。因此，在这项研究中，同样的方法也被应用于分析2015-2016年期间发生在北京或华北地区的10次PM2.5超过300微克/立方米（μg/m3）的严重雾霾事件>24 h。对流层各气象要素的异常空间特征表明，在对流层低层逆温异常、近地面负位势异常、对流层高层正位势异常、对流层低层负位势异常、对流层负位势异常、对流层负（4）西南风异常;（5）对流层低层比湿的正异常。2016年12月，对流层上层位势距平因子与北京PM2.5浓度的相关系数为0.56，达到95%置信水平。预测评估分析表明，欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）模式能够预测大多数异常的温度-压力结构相关的烟霾事件，并指出烟霾强度领先约一周。
Smoggiest days like heavy rainfall, tornadic and hail storms are considered as weather extremes. The method of anomaly-based meteorological variable analysis has been recently used to analyze and predict weather extremes. Thus, in this study, the same method was also applied to analyze ten severe haze episodes with PM2.5exceeding 300 micrograms per cubic metre (μg/m3) for >24 h occurred during 2015–2016 in Beijing or North China. The anomalous spatial features of tropospheric meteorological variables show that the haze intensity indicated by PM2.5concentration is strengthened gradually following the five factors of (1) an anomalous temperature inversion in the lower troposphere, (2) negative geopotential anomaly near the surface, (3) positive geopotential anomaly at the upper troposphere, (4) southwesterly wind anomaly and (5) positive anomaly of specific humidity in the lower troposphere. The correlation coefficient between the geopotential anomaly factor at the upper troposphere and PM2.5concentration at Beijing is 0.56 reaching the level of 95% confidence in December 2016. Forecast evaluation analyses reveal that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model is able to predict most anomalous temperature-pressure structures related to haze episodes and to indicate haze intensities for leading about one week.