Frailty modelling for adult and old age mortality: the application of a modified DeMoivre hazard function to sex differentials in mortality.
Frailty modelling for adult and old age mortality: the application of a modified DeMoivre hazard function to sex differentials in mortality.
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DOI：
10.4054/demres.2000.3.8
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发表时间：
2000-10
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
H. Kohler;I. Kohler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Kohler;I. Kohler
个体对死亡的易感性中未观察到的差异是分析当代死亡率模式的一个重要方面。然而，观察到的成年死亡率通常可以用冈佩兹曲线很好地描述，但通常被认为与死亡率的脆弱模型不一致。因此，作者提出了一种修改后的 DeMoivre 风险函数，适合将脆弱模型应用于成人和老年。所提出的危险增加速度超过指数，当与未观察到的脆弱性相结合时，它可以捕获在分析成人死亡率时遇到的广泛模式。作者在 1992-93 年期间对保加利亚的应用表明，总体较高的死亡率导致男性人口中更强的选择过程，可能构成导致较高年龄男性和女性死亡率趋同的主要机制。因此，男性和女性死亡率的趋同并不一定是由于不同性别的衰老过程不同造成的，而仅仅是成年死亡率水平不同的结果。
Unobserved differences in individual's susceptibility to death are an important aspect in the analysis of contemporary mortality patterns. However, observed mortality rates at adult ages, which are usually well described by a Gompertz curve, are often perceived inconsistent with frailty models of mortality. The authors therefore propose a modified DeMoivre hazard function that is suitable for the application of frailty models to adult and old ages. The proposed hazard increases faster than exponential, and when combined with unobserved frailty it can capture a broad range of patterns encountered in the analysis of adult mortality. The authors' application to Bulgaria during 1992-93 suggests that the stronger selection process in the male population, caused by an overall higher level of mortality, may constitute a primary mechanism leading to the convergence of male and female mortality at higher ages. Hence, the convergence between male and female mortality is not necessarily caused by differential process of aging across sexes, but is merely a consequence of the different levels of mortality at adult ages.