Why most published research findings are false
Why most published research findings are false
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
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发表时间：
2005-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
15.8
通讯作者：
Ioannidis, JPA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ioannidis, JPA
越来越担心的是，大多数当前已发表的研究结果都是错误的。研究主张是正确的可能性可能取决于研究能力和偏见，其他关于同一问题的研究的数量，重要的是，在本框架中每个科学领域中探讨的关系之间的真实关系与没有关系的比率，这是一项研究当在田间进行的研究较小时，发现不太可能是正确的。当效果尺寸较小时；当测试关系的数量更大且更少的预选时；在设计，定义，结果和分析模式中具有更大灵活性的地方；当有更大的财务和其他兴趣和偏见以及更多的团队参与统计意义的科学领域时。模拟表明，对于大多数研究设计和设置，研究声称是错误的，而不是真实的。此外，对于许多当前的科学领域，声称的研究结果通常只是准确的衡量偏见。在本文中，我讨论了这些问题对研究的行为和解释的含义。
There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. the probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field in this framework, a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sized are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudices and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.