Efficient use of sentinel sites: detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK.
Efficient use of sentinel sites: detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2016.0908
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发表时间：
2017-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Budge GE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Keeling MJ;Datta S;Franklin DN;Flatman I;Wattam A;Brown M;Budge GE
可以及早发现或详细调查问题的哨兵地点，是计划在人类、牲畜和植物中爆发外来疾病的重要组成部分。关键问题是：需要多少哨兵，他们应该部署在哪里，他们在快速识别新的入侵方面有多有效？针对入侵蜜蜂病虫害的前哨蜂道系统说明了这种方法的成本和收益。在这里，我们用两种数学建模方法来解决这些问题。第一种方法是通用的，使用概率参数来计算首次检测到暴发时受影响地点的平均数量，提供我们已应用于一系列传染病的快速和一般性的见解。第二种方法使用计算密集、随机的空间模型来模拟多个疫情，并确定英国蜂巢的适当哨点位置。这两个模型都量化了随着哨点数量的增加和非哨点在检测方面变得更差而预期的成功率增加；然而，在更快增长的疫情中，哨点的表现出人意料地相对更好。此外，空间模型使我们能够量化仔细定位的哨兵在快速检测外来入侵方面所起的重要作用。
Sentinel sites, where problems can be identified early or investigated in detail, form an important part of planning for exotic disease outbreaks in humans, livestock and plants. Key questions are: how many sentinels are required, where should they be positioned and how effective are they at rapidly identifying new invasions? The sentinel apiary system for invasive honeybee pests and diseases illustrates the costs and benefits of such approaches. Here, we address these issues with two mathematical modelling approaches. The first approach is generic and uses probabilistic arguments to calculate the average number of affected sites when an outbreak is first detected, providing rapid and general insights that we have applied to a range of infectious diseases. The second approach uses a computationally intensive, stochastic, spatial model to simulate multiple outbreaks and to determine appropriate sentinel locations for UK apiaries. Both models quantify the anticipated increase in success of sentinel sites as their number increases and as non-sentinel sites become worse at detection; however, unexpectedly sentinels perform relatively better for faster growing outbreaks. Additionally, the spatial model allows us to quantify the substantial role that carefully positioned sentinels can play in the rapid detection of exotic invasions.