Error propagation and uncertainty analysis: Application to fault tree analysis
Error propagation and uncertainty analysis: Application to fault tree analysis
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DOI：
10.1002/prs.12080
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发表时间：
2020-06
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
R. Freeman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Freeman
故障树分析是一种广泛应用的安全系统评价方法。故障树分析是基于通过描述系统的逻辑树中的逻辑门（AND，OR）的组合来建模系统的行为。低水平事件的失效数据用于计算最受关注事件的频率。故障率数据描述了系统组件（如泵、阀门、容器和仪器）的故障。所有故障率数据都是不确定的。本文提出了一种方法，用于评估的不确定性在关注的顶部事件使用传播的误差和不确定性分析方法。基本理论，并完成了一个简单的故障树不确定性分析，以证明该方法。不确定性分析方法允许识别主导风险的组成部分或假设。
Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a widely used method for the evaluation of safety systems. FTA is based on modeling the behavior of a system by a combination of logic gates (AND, OR) in a logic tree that describes the system. Failure data of low‐level events are used to compute the frequency of the top event of concern. The failure rate data describe the failure of the system components such as pumps, valves, vessels, and instruments. All of the failure rate data are uncertain. This article presents a methodology for the evaluation of uncertainty in the top event of concern using propagation of error and uncertainty analysis methods. The fundamental theory is presented, and a simple fault tree uncertainty analysis is completed to demonstrate the methodology. The uncertainty analysis methodology allows for the identification of the components or assumptions that dominate the risk.