Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions
Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1216006110
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发表时间：
2013-04-16
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Zagorski, Melissa A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Michalak, Anna M.;Anderson, Eric J.;Zagorski, Melissa A.
2011年，伊利湖经历了有记录以来最大的有害藻华，峰值强度是之前观察到的任何藻华的三倍多。在这里，我们表明，农业实践的长期趋势与湖泊西部盆地磷负荷的增加是一致的，这些趋势加上2011年春季的气象条件，产生了创纪录的养分负荷。一段较长时间的湖泊环流减弱导致了异常长的停留时间，这段时间孕育了藻华，而藻华开始后温暖而安静的环境使藻类能够保持在水柱顶部附近，防止了系统中营养物质的流失。我们进一步发现，所有这些因素都与预期的未来条件一致。如果没有一个科学指导的管理计划来减轻这些影响，我们可以预期，这次水华将是伊利湖未来水华的预兆。
In 2011, Lake Erie experienced the largest harmful algal bloom in its recorded history, with a peak intensity over three times greater than any previously observed bloom. Here we show that long-term trends in agricultural practices are consistent with increasing phosphorus loading to the western basin of the lake, and that these trends, coupled with meteorological conditions in spring 2011, produced record-breaking nutrient loads. An extended period of weak lake circulation then led to abnormally long residence times that incubated the bloom, and warm and quiescent conditions after bloom onset allowed algae to remain near the top of the water column and prevented flushing of nutrients from the system. We further find that all of these factors are consistent with expected future conditions. If a scientifically guided management plan to mitigate these impacts is not implemented, we can therefore expect this bloom to be a harbinger of future blooms in Lake Erie.