Coupled impacts of ENSO AMO and PDO on temperature and precipitation in the Alabama–Coosa–Tallapoosa and Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint river basins
Coupled impacts of ENSO AMO and PDO on temperature and precipitation in the Alabama–Coosa–Tallapoosa and Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint river basins
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ENSO AMO 和 PDO 对阿拉巴马-库萨-塔拉普萨和阿巴拉契科拉-查塔胡奇-弗林特河流域温度和降水的耦合影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Martinez
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Maleski;C. Martinez
海洋表面温度的大尺度模式可以影响地球仪的天气，了解它们与当地气候的相互作用可以改善当地温度和降水的季节性预测。在这里，我们专注于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO），大西洋年代际振荡（AMO）和太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）在美国东南部的阿巴拉契科拉-查特胡奇-弗林特（ACF）和阿巴拉契科拉-库萨-塔拉波萨（ACT）流域的综合相互作用。这些遥相关对年度研究区域气候（1895-2009）的个体和耦合影响的非参数秩和检验发现了显着的影响。正AMO相与降水减少和平均温度升高相关，而负AMO相与降水增加和温度降低相关。虽然厄尔尼诺事件通常会增加区域降水，但在正AMO或PDO阶段的厄尔尼诺导致我们研究区域的降水低于长期平均水平。由于AMO和PDO位相之间有许多厄尔尼诺现象，因此无法区分PDO和AMO对厄尔尼诺现象的影响。拉尼娜现象与负降水和温度升高有关。在AMO和PDO正位相期间，拉尼娜对气温和降水异常的影响显著增强。上述遥相关的综合影响表明，在使用基于ENSO的预报时，有必要考虑AMO和PDO的影响。遥相关对区域气候的影响从AMO负位相到AMO正位相的显著变化，使人们对基于近期历史（即自2000年以来使用1950-2000年期间预测季节气候）的研究区域的季节预测产生了怀疑。
Large‐scale patterns of ocean surface temperature can influence weather across the globe and understanding their interaction with the local climate can improve seasonal forecasting of local temperature and precipitation. Here we focus on the combined interactions of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the Alabama–Coosa–Tallapoosa (ACT) and Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint (ACF) river basins of the southeastern United States. Nonparametric ranks‐sum tests of individual and coupled impacts of these teleconnections on the annual study area climate (1895–2009) found significant impacts. A positive AMO phase was associated with decreased precipitation and increased mean temperature while the negative AMO phase was associated with increased precipitation and decreased temperature. While an El Niño event generally increases regional precipitation, El Niño during a positive AMO or PDO phase resulted in precipitation below the long‐term average in our study area. Because of many instances of El Niño being shared between AMO and PDO phase, the effects of the PDO and AMO on El Niño could not be distinguished. La Niña was associated with negative precipitation and increased temperature. The effects of La Niña on the temperature and precipitation anomaly were significantly increased during positive AMO and PDO phases. The coupled impacts of the aforementioned teleconnections demonstrate the necessity of including the effects of the AMO and the PDO when using ENSO‐based forecasts. The significant shifts on the effects of teleconnections on area climate from AMO negative phase to AMO positive phase cast doubt on seasonal prediction for the study area based on the recent history (i.e. the use of the period 1950–2000 to predict seasonal climate since 2000).