Altitudinal Changes in Malaria Incidence in Highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia
Altitudinal Changes in Malaria Incidence in Highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1244325
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发表时间：
2014-03-07
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Pascual, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Siraj, A. S.;Santos-Vega, M.;Pascual, M.
全球变暖对虫媒疾病，尤其是高原疟疾的影响仍然存在争议。众所周知，温度通过影响蚊媒种群的增长和媒介内病原体的发育来影响传播强度。哥伦比亚和埃塞俄比亚高地区域尺度的时空数据为研究疾病的空间分布如何随温度的年际变化而变化提供了机会。我们提供了在温暖年份疟疾分布高度增加的证据，这意味着如果不采取缓解措施，气候变化将导致非洲和南美洲人口稠密高地的疟疾负担增加。
The impact of global warming on insect-borne diseases and on highland malaria in particular remains controversial. Temperature is known to influence transmission intensity through its effects on the population growth of the mosquito vector and on pathogen development within the vector. Spatiotemporal data at a regional scale in highlands of Colombia and Ethiopia supplied an opportunity to examine how the spatial distribution of the disease changes with the interannual variability of temperature. We provide evidence for an increase in the altitude of malaria distribution in warmer years, which implies that climate change will, without mitigation, result in an increase of the malaria burden in the densely populated highlands of Africa and South America.