Do superspreaders generate new superspreaders? A hypothesis to explain the propagation pattern of COVID-19
Do superspreaders generate new superspreaders? A hypothesis to explain the propagation pattern of COVID-19
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.025
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发表时间：
2020-07-01
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
Beldomenico, Pablo M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Beldomenico, Pablo M.
COVID-19目前的全球传播是异质性的，在许多国家持续缓慢传播，在其他国家呈指数传播，爆发性传播开始的时间差异很大。有人提出，这可以用级联超级传播事件来解释，其中超级传播者引起的新感染更有可能具有高度传染性。对此提出的机制与病毒载量有关。暴露于高病毒载量可能导致高强度感染，使新病例暴露于高病毒载量。这一观点得到了兽医实验研究的支持。(C)2020作者由Elsevier Ltd代表国际传染病学会出版。
The current global propagation of COVID-19 is heterogeneous, with slow transmission continuing in many countries and exponential propagation in others, where the time that it took for the explosive spread to begin varied greatly. It is proposed that this could be explained by cascading superspreading events, in which new infections caused by a superspreader are more likely to be highly infectious. The mechanism suggested for this is related to viral loads. Exposure to high viral loads may result in high-intensity infection, which exposes new cases to high viral loads. This notion is supported by experimental veterinary research. (C) 2020 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.