Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3550308
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发表时间：
2020-06-11
影响因子：
13.8
通讯作者：
Amoroso, Anthony
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sajadi, Mohammad M.;Habibzadeh, Parham;Amoroso, Anthony
这项队列研究考察了气候与2019年冠状病毒病(新冠肺炎)感染传播的关系。重要的2019年冠状病毒病(新冠肺炎)感染已导致一场全球危机。调查气候和季节性与这种感染传播的潜在关联可能有助于制定预防和监测战略。目的探讨气候因素与新冠肺炎传播的关系。设计、设置和参与者这项队列研究检查了全球50个城市的气候数据，在有没有新冠肺炎大规模社区传播的情况下。新冠肺炎传播显著的8个城市(武汉，中国，日本东京，韩国大邱，伊朗库姆，意大利米兰，法国巴黎，美国西雅图，西班牙马德里)与42个未受影响或社区传播不显著的城市进行了比较。数据收集于2020年1月至3月10日。主要结果和衡量标准重大社区传播的定义是，截至2020年3月10日，一个国家至少报告了10例死亡病例。气候数据(纬度、平均2米温度、平均比湿度和平均相对湿度)来自ERA-5再分析。结果截至2020年3月10日，社区分布较大的8个城市分布范围较窄，大致分布在北纬30度至50度的走廊上。它们的天气模式一直很相似，包括平均气温在5至11摄氏度之间，以及低比湿度(3-6g/kg)和低绝对湿度(4-7g/m(3))。在基于邻近的预期地点缺乏实质性的社区建设。例如，武汉(北纬30.8度)中国(3136例)死亡及80例病例；俄罗斯莫斯科(北纬56.0度)0例死亡及10例病例；越南河内(北纬21.2度)0例死亡及31例病例。结论和相关性在本研究中，新冠肺炎大规模社区暴发的分布沿受限的纬度、温度和湿度测量与季节性呼吸道病毒的行为一致。使用天气模型，可能有可能估计在未来几周内最有可能处于新冠肺炎大规模社区传播的高风险地区，从而将公共卫生努力集中在监测和控制上。问题是严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2与季节性有关，其传播能否被估计？在这项对50个有冠状病毒病和没有冠状病毒病的城市(新冠肺炎)的队列研究中，新冠肺炎社区传播的地区大致沿北纬30度至50度的走廊分布，具有一致相似的天气模式，包括5至11摄氏度的平均温度以及低比湿度和绝对湿度。在这项研究中，新冠肺炎大规模社区暴发沿受限的纬度、温度和湿度测量的分布与季节性呼吸道病毒的行为一致；通过建模，可能有可能估计新冠肺炎大规模社区传播的高风险地区。
This cohort study examines the association between climate and the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection.Importance Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has resulted in a global crisis. Investigating the potential association of climate and seasonality with the spread of this infection could aid in preventive and surveillance strategies. Objective To examine the association of climate with the spread of COVID-19 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study examined climate data from 50 cities worldwide with and without substantial community spread of COVID-19. Eight cities with substantial spread of COVID-19 (Wuhan, China; Tokyo, Japan; Daegu, South Korea; Qom, Iran; Milan, Italy; Paris, France; Seattle, US; and Madrid, Spain) were compared with 42 cities that have not been affected or did not have substantial community spread. Data were collected from January to March 10, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures Substantial community transmission was defined as at least 10 reported deaths in a country as of March 10, 2020. Climate data (latitude, mean 2-m temperature, mean specific humidity, and mean relative humidity) were obtained from ERA-5 reanalysis. Results The 8 cities with substantial community spread as of March 10, 2020, were located on a narrow band, roughly on the 30 degrees N to 50 degrees N corridor. They had consistently similar weather patterns, consisting of mean temperatures of between 5 and 11 degrees C, combined with low specific humidity (3-6 g/kg) and low absolute humidity (4-7 g/m(3)). There was a lack of substantial community establishment in expected locations based on proximity. For example, while Wuhan, China (30.8 degrees N) had 3136 deaths and 80 & x202f;757 cases, Moscow, Russia (56.0 degrees N), had 0 deaths and 10 cases and Hanoi, Vietnam (21.2 degrees N), had 0 deaths and 31 cases. Conclusions and Relevance In this study, the distribution of substantial community outbreaks of COVID-19 along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity measurements was consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to estimate the regions most likely to be at a higher risk of substantial community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.Question Is severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 associated with seasonality, and can its spread be estimated? Findings In this cohort study of 50 cities with and without coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), areas with substantial community transmission of COVID-19 had distribution roughly along the 30 degrees N to 50 degrees N latitude corridor with consistently similar weather patterns, consisting of mean temperatures of 5 to 11 degrees C combined with low specific and absolute humidity. Meaning In this study, the distribution of substantial community outbreaks of COVID-19 along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity measurements were consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus; with modeling, it may be possible to estimate areas at high risk of substantial community transmission of COVID-19.