Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis
Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis
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DOI：
10.1029/2010jd013857
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发表时间：
2010-02
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通讯作者：
J. Austin;J. Austin;J. Scinocca;D. Plummer;L. Oman;D. Waugh;H. Akiyoshi;S. Bekki;P. Braesicke;N. Butchart;M. Chipperfield;D. Cugnet;M. Dameris;S. Dhomse;V. Eyring;S. Frith;R. Garcia;H. Garny;A. Gettelman;S. Hardiman;D. Kinnison;J. Lamarque;E. Mancini;M. Marchand;M. Michou;O. Morgenstern;Tetsu Nakamura;S. Pawson;G. Pitari;J. Pyle;E. Rozanov;T. Shepherd;K. Shibata;H. Teyssèdre;R. Wilson;Y. Yamashita
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文献类型：
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作者：
J. Austin;J. Austin;J. Scinocca;D. Plummer;L. Oman;D. Waugh;H. Akiyoshi;S. Bekki;P. Braesicke;N. Butchart;M. Chipperfield;D. Cugnet;M. Dameris;S. Dhomse;V. Eyring;S. Frith;R. Garcia;H. Garny;A. Gettelman;S. Hardiman;D. Kinnison;J. Lamarque;E. Mancini;M. Marchand;M. Michou;O. Morgenstern;Tetsu Nakamura;S. Pawson;G. Pitari;J. Pyle;E. Rozanov;T. Shepherd;K. Shibata;H. Teyssèdre;R. Wilson;Y. Yamashita
介绍了 1960 年至 2100 年期间 15 个耦合化学气候模型的模拟结果。这些模型包括详细的平流层，以及对流层气候的真实再现。模拟假设一组一致的温室气体浓度变化，以及根据过去的观察和未来的预期随时间变化的含氯氟烃浓度。使用非参数加性统计模型分析臭氧结果。与最近的观测结果进行了比较，并以纬度函数的形式研究了臭氧的恢复（通过返回到 1960 年和 1980 年的值来表明）。尽管模拟氯含量到 2050 年左右将恢复到 1980 年的值，但纬度变化很小，但由于温室气体变化的影响，柱臭氧含量以不同的速度恢复。在热带地区，模拟的臭氧量峰值出现在 2050 年左右，此后臭氧总量下降。因此，模拟臭氧无法恢复到 20 世纪 80 年代初之前的值。结果还显示出明显的半球不对称性，北半球温带地区在氯返回之前大约 20 年恢复到 1980 年的值。在南半球中纬度地区，模拟臭氧仅比氯提前 10 年恢复到 1980 年的水平。在南极洲，每年平均臭氧的恢复速度与高纬度地区氯的恢复速度大致相同，因此直到模拟的最后十年才恢复到 1960 年代的值。
Simulations of 15 coupled chemistry climate models, for the period 1960–2100, are presented. The models include a detailed stratosphere, as well as including a realistic representation of the tropospheric climate. The simulations assume a consistent set of changing greenhouse gas concentrations, as well as temporally varying chlorofluorocarbon concentrations in accordance with observations for the past and expectations for the future. The ozone results are analyzed using a nonparametric additive statistical model. Comparisons are made with observations for the recent past, and the recovery of ozone, indicated by a return to 1960 and 1980 values, is investigated as a function of latitude. Although chlorine amounts are simulated to return to 1980 values by about 2050, with only weak latitudinal variations, column ozone amounts recover at different rates due to the influence of greenhouse gas changes. In the tropics, simulated peak ozone amounts occur by about 2050 and thereafter total ozone column declines. Consequently, simulated ozone does not recover to values which existed prior to the early 1980s. The results also show a distinct hemispheric asymmetry, with recovery to 1980 values in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics ahead of the chlorine return by about 20 years. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, ozone is simulated to return to 1980 levels only 10 years ahead of chlorine. In the Antarctic, annually averaged ozone recovers at about the same rate as chlorine in high latitudes and hence does not return to 1960s values until the last decade of the simulations.