Optimal control of a rabies epidemic model with a birth pulse.
Optimal control of a rabies epidemic model with a birth pulse.
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DOI：
10.1080/17513750902935216
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发表时间：
2010-01
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Real LA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Clayton T;Duke-Sylvester S;Gross LJ;Lenhart S;Real LA
一个常微分方程系统描述了浣熊狂犬病流行的种群动态。该模型解释了疫苗的动态，包括由于动物消费和浣熊摄取以外的因素造成的疫苗损失。介绍了一种通过疫苗包的时间分布来减少疾病传播的控制方法。这项工作纳入了浣熊种群的季节性出生脉冲的影响，以及随之而来的易受疾病影响的新生儿的增加，分析了这种脉冲的时间和长度对疫苗包最佳分配的影响。最优化的准则是最小化感染浣熊的数量，同时最小化分发疫苗的成本。使用最优控制设置，数值结果说明了战略分配疫苗的感染爆发的时间，相对于出生脉冲。
A system of ordinary differential equations describes the populuation dynamics of a rabies epidemic in raccoons. The model accounts for the dynamics of vaccine, including loss of vaccine due to animal consumption and loss from factors other than racoon uptake. A control method to reduce the spread of disease is introduced through temporal distribution of vaccine packets. This work incorporates the effect of the seasonal birth pulse in the racoon population and the attendant increase in new-borns which are susceptible to the diseases, analysing the impact of the timing and length of this pulse on the optimal distribution of vaccine packets. The optimization criterion is to minimize the number of infected raccoons while minimizing the cost of distributing the vaccine. Using an optimal control setting, numerical results illustrate strategies for distributing vaccine depending on the timing of the infection outbreak with respect to the birth pulse.