A model for natural immunity to asexual blood stages of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in endemic areas
A model for natural immunity to asexual blood stages of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in endemic areas
复制标题
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2006.75.19
复制
发表时间：
2006-08-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Molineaux, Louis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Maire, Nicolas;Smith, Thomas;Molineaux, Louis
大多数关于恶性疟原虫获得性免疫的数学模型考虑了免疫对感染持续时间和传染性的影响，但没有考虑免疫最明显的影响，即减少寄生虫密度。很少有人尝试将这样的模型与现场数据相匹配。我们提出了一个随机模拟模型来预测恶性疟原虫在流行区的分布，在该模型中，获得性免疫通过降低寄生虫密度来起作用。我们已经将这个模型与加纳、尼日利亚和坦桑尼亚的特定年龄段的患病率和几何平均密度进行了匹配。该模型似乎相当好地再现了流行区疟疾调查中看到的寄生虫学模式，并适用于在恶性疟原虫持续暴露的情况下预测疫苗接种等干预措施的影响。
Most mathematical models for acquired immunity to Plasmodium falciparum consider effects of immunity on duration of infection and infectiousness, but do not consider the most evident effect of immunity, which is to reduce parasite densities. Few attempts have been made to fit such models to field data. We propose a stochastic simulation model to predict the distributions of P. falciparum parasite densities in endemic areas, in which acquired immunity acts by reducing parasite densities. We have fitted this model to age-specific prevalence and geometric mean densities from settings in Ghana, Nigeria, and Tanzania. The model appears to reproduce reasonably well the parasitologic patterns seen in malariologic surveys in endemic areas and is appropriate for predicting the impact of interventions such as vaccination in the context of continual exposure to P. falciparum.