Learning, risk attitude and hot stoves in restless bandit problems
Learning, risk attitude and hot stoves in restless bandit problems
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jmp.2008.05.006
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发表时间：
2009-06-01
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
Ert, Eyal
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Biele, Guido;Erev, Ido;Ert, Eyal
这项研究检验了根据解决不安定强盗问题的经验做出的决策。两项实验揭示了四个主要影响。 (1)风险中性：典型的参与者没有学会规避风险，这是热风炉效应的矛盾。 (2) 对控制马尔可夫过程的转移概率的敏感性。 （3）正新近度（Positive Recency）：获胜后重复风险选择的概率高于失败后。 (4)惯性：损失后重复风险选择的概率高于安全选择后重复风险选择的概率。这些结果可以用一个简单的偶然抽样模型来描述，该模型假设选择是基于取决于当前状态的小经验样本做出的。 (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. 保留所有权利。
This research examines decisions from experience in restless bandit problems. Two experiments revealed four main effects. (1) Risk neutrality: the typical participant did not learn to become risk averse, a contradiction of the hot stove effect. (2) Sensitivity to the transition probabilities that govern the Markov process. (3) Positive recency: the probability of a risky choice being repeated was higher after a win than after a loss. (4) Inertia: the probability of a risky choice being repeated following a loss was higher than the probability of a risky choice after a safe choice. These results can be described with a simple contingent sampler model, which assumes that choices are made based on small samples of experiences contingent on the current state. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.