High-resolution behavioral economic analysis of cigarette demand to inform tax policy
High-resolution behavioral economic analysis of cigarette demand to inform tax policy
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1360-0443.2012.03991.x
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发表时间：
2012-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Chaloupka, Frank
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
MacKillop, James;Few, Lauren R.;Chaloupka, Frank
目标 行为经济学中的新方法允许系统评估卷烟消费与价格之间的关系。为了为税收政策提供信息，本研究的目标是对大量成年吸烟者样本的卷烟需求进行高分辨率分析，并利用这些数据来估计美国 10 个州增税的影响。设计面对面的描述性调查评估。在三所大学设有学术部门。参与者 每日吸烟的成人（即每天超过 5 支烟；18 岁以上；>= 八年级教育程度）； n = 1056。 测量 估计卷烟需求、人口统计、过期一氧化碳。研究结果 卷烟需求曲线表现出高度可变的价格敏感性水平，尤其是左位效应（即，当包装价格从一个整数过渡到下一个整数时，价格敏感性非常高；例如 5.806 美元/包）。预计 10 个州增加 1 美元的税收将平均减少吸烟的经济负担 5.306 亿美元（范围：9369.765 万美元），并使总税收收入平均增加 162%（范围：114247%）。结论 烟草价格敏感性在整个需求曲线上是非线性的，特别是对于包装级左位价格转变而言。价格和税率与样本相似的美国各州的增税预计将导致与吸烟相关的成本大幅下降和税收收入大幅增加。
Aims Novel methods in behavioral economics permit the systematic assessment of the relationship between cigarette consumption and price. Towards informing tax policy, the goals of this study were to conduct a high-resolution analysis of cigarette demand in a large sample of adult smokers and to use the data to estimate the effects of tax increases in 10 US States. Design In-person descriptive survey assessment. Setting Academic departments at three universities. Participants Adult daily smokers (i.e. more than five cigarettes/day; 18+ years old; >= 8th grade education); n = 1056. Measurements Estimated cigarette demand, demographics, expired carbon monoxide. Findings The cigarette demand curve exhibited highly variable levels of price sensitivity, especially in the form of left-digit effects (i.e. very high price sensitivity as pack prices transitioned from one whole number to the next; e.g. $5.806/pack). A $1 tax increase in the 10 states was projected to reduce the economic burden of smoking by an average of $530.6 million (range: $93.6976.5 million) and increase gross tax revenue by an average of 162% (range: 114247%). Conclusions Tobacco price sensitivity is non-linear across the demand curve and in particular for pack-level left-digit price transitions. Tax increases in US states with similar price and tax rates to the sample are projected to result in substantial decreases in smoking-related costs and substantial increases in tax revenues.