The need for experiments to understand population dynamics of American black ducks
The need for experiments to understand population dynamics of American black ducks
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需要通过实验来了解美国黑鸭的种群动态
DOI：
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发表时间：
1987
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Conroy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
David R. Anderson;K. Burnham;J. Nichols;M. Conroy
冬季调查表明，美国黑鸭(Anas Rubripe)的种群数量在过去30年里总体上有所下降(Anon。1985年)。这种减少的趋势和生物学家的相关关注导致了“黑鸭研讨会”(Barske 1968)和1971年“黑鸭报告”(Geis等人)的出版。1971年)。在过去的20年里，狩猎法规受到了许多限制，希望能阻止这种下降。随着人口的持续减少，普遍的关切和挫败感每年都在增加。关于衰落的原因(S)，多年来一直存在争议。最近，有法律努力来阻止猎杀黑鸭(Feierabend 1984)。直到20世纪70年代中期，似乎有证据表明，狩猎死亡增加了黑鸭的年总死亡率。这一概念(加性假设)暗示，如果被猎人猎杀的鸟更少，种群的总死亡率就会更低。这是限制性狩猎法规的基础。10年前，对水禽的可加性假设的支持被发现是错误的(Anderson和Burnham 1976)。目前，野生生物学家和管理者正在激烈辩论水禽种群的狩猎死亡是累加的还是补偿的(见Nichols等人。[1984]关于这些术语的定义和迄今证据的摘要)。布兰丁(1982)研究了黑鸭的这些问题，但未能为这两种假说提供令人信服的证据。关于狩猎对黑鸭年存活率的影响的争议仍在继续。虽然我们对当代的技术问题进行了很好的辩论，但我们认为，我们可以而且应该找出狩猎死亡率的变化是否会导致黑鸭种群年存活率的相应变化。这可以通过一些相对简单的实验来完成，这些实验涉及刻意操纵狩猎季节。需要一个条带计划来监测结果。分析理论的存在是为了从简单的实验中学到很多东西。实施相关实验的计划应该很快开始，以免我们进入人口下降的第四个十年，而我们既不知道也不试图了解狩猎的影响及其在人口下降中的作用。许多实验设计是可行的，在选择最终的行动方案之前，必须进行仔细的审查。在这里，我们概述1个实验协议作为一个例子
The size of the American black duck (Anas rubripes) population, as indicated by winter surveys, has generally decreased over the past 3 decades (Anon. 1985). This decreasing trend and associated concern by biologists led to the "Black Duck Symposium" (Barske 1968) and publication of the "Black Duck Report" in 1971 (Geis et al. 1971). Over the past 2 decades many restrictions have been made to the hunting regulations in the hope of arresting the decline. General concern and frustration have tended to increase each year as the population continues to decline. Controversy has existed for many years as to the cause(s) of the decline. Recently, there have been legal efforts to stop black duck hunting (Feierabend 1984). Until the mid-1970s, there seemed to be evidence that hunting mortality increased the total annual mortality rate of black ducks. This concept (the hypothesis of additivity) implied that if fewer birds were killed by hunters, the population would experience a lower total mortality rate. This was the basis for restrictive hunting regulations. Support for the hypothesis of additivity in waterfowl was found to be in error 10 years ago (Anderson and Burnham 1976). Currently, wildlife biologists and managers hotly debate whether hunting mortality in waterfowl populations is additive or compensatory (see Nichols et al. [1984] for the definition of these terms and a summary of the evidence to date). Blandin (1982) studied these issues for black ducks but was unable to provide convincing evidence for either hypothesis. The controversy over the effect of hunting on annual survival of the black duck continues. While we enjoy a good debate over contemporary technical issues, it is our opinion that we can and should find out if changes in hunting mortality bring about corresponding changes in annual survival rates of black duck populations. This can be done through some relatively straightforward experiments involving the deliberate manipulation of hunting seasons. A banding program is required to monitor the outcome. The analysis theory exists to allow much to be learned from simple experimentation. Plans to implement the relevant experiments should begin soon, lest we enter a fourth decade of population decline without either knowing or attempting to learn the effect of hunting and its role in the decline. Many experimental designs are feasible, and careful scrutiny must precede the selection of a final course of action. Here, we outline 1 experimental protocol as an example of what