When will unusual heat waves become normal in a warming Africa?
When will unusual heat waves become normal in a warming Africa?
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054016
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发表时间：
2016-05-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Imme, Giuseppina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Russo, Simone;Marchese, Andrea F.;Imme, Giuseppina
非洲是最容易受到气候变化影响的大陆之一。在接下来的几十年里，更长、更热、更频繁的热浪可能会对人类死亡率和作物生产产生强烈影响。在这里，通过将热浪强度指数应用于温度再分析数据，我们量化了1979年至2015年10月非洲不同季节经历的最极端热浪的强度和空间范围。结果表明，与20世纪最后20年相比，近年来非洲经历了更热、更长、更广泛的热浪。在未来，50%的区域气候预估表明，到2040年，在IPCC第五次评估报告最严重情景（即RCP8.5）下，在当前气候条件下不寻常的热浪将经常发生。
Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change. In the upcoming decades the occurrence of longer, hotter and more frequent heat waves could have a strong impact on human mortality and crop production. Here, by applying the heat wave magnitude index daily to temperature reanalysis data, we quantify the magnitude and the spatial extent of the most extreme heat waves experienced in Africa between 1979 and October 2015 across different seasons. Results show that in the recent years Africa experienced hotter, longer and more extent heat waves than in the last two decades of the 20th century. In the future, 50% of regional climateprojections suggest that heat waves that are unusual under present climate conditions will occur on a regular basis by 2040 under the most severe IPCC AR5 scenario (i.e. RCP8.5).