Multi‐system seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice
Multi‐system seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice
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北极海冰的多系统季节预测
DOI：
10.1002/grl.50317
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
A. Kumar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Merryfield;W;W. Wang;M. Chen;A. Kumar
研究了基于耦合模型的北极海冰面积和范围的多系统季节性预测的实用性，以对气候预报系统版本 2 (CFSv2) 和加拿大季节到年际预测系统 (CanSIPS) 业务季节预报系统进行组合预测，这些系统是最早将海冰作为预测变量的系统之一。对单个系统和组合预测都检查了总体异常和偏离长期线性趋势的预测技能，并与阻尼异常持续性等简单预测进行了比较。结果表明，基于多个预测系统的综合输出的气候预测优于任何一个系统的趋势，先前在温度和降水等全球变量中得到证明，在北极海冰的预测中也得到了实现。
The utility of multi‐system, coupled model‐based seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice area and extent is investigated for combined predictions from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) operational seasonal forecasting systems, which are among the first to have sea ice as a prognostic variable. Forecast skills for predictions of total anomalies and departures from long‐term linear trends are examined both for the individual systems and the combined forecasts, and are compared against simple predictions such as damped anomaly persistence. Results indicate that the tendency for climate forecasts based on combined output from multiple prediction systems to outperform any one system, demonstrated previously for global variables such as temperature and precipitation, is realized for predictions of Arctic sea ice as well.