Discount Rate Heterogeneity and Social Security Reform
Discount Rate Heterogeneity and Social Security Reform
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贴现率异质性与社会保障改革
DOI：
10.1016/s0304-3878(98)00080-7
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发表时间：
1997
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Andrew A. Samwick
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Andrew A. Samwick
由于许多国家考虑将现有的现收现付社会保障制度私有化，使参加新制度成为自愿的选择可能会吸引需要获得其工人政治支持的决策者。在评估这种改革及其经济后果时，一个关键问题是未观察到的家庭消费偏好的异质性。本文根据1992年消费者财务调查的财富数据和收入不确定性下的消费弹性生命周期模型，估计了时间偏好率的分布。然后，将估计的分配应用于各种改革提案，其中包括自愿选择向专用退休账户缴款的金额，以及现有工资税的退税，退税额随着缴款的幅度而增加。主要的发现是，一系列合适的改革计划可以促使人们自愿购买84%的现行工资税，而国民储蓄的直接成本不到0.25个百分点。
As many countries consider the privatization of existing pay-as-you-go Social Security systems, the option to make participation in the new system voluntary may appeal to policy makers who need to obtain the political support of their workers. A critical issue in evaluating such a reform and its economic consequences is the unobserved heterogeneity in households' preferences for consumption. This paper estimates the distribution of rates of time preference from the wealth data in the Survey of Consumer Finances 1992 and a flexible life-cycle model of consumption under income uncertainty. The estimated distribution is then applied to a variety of reform proposals that incorporate a voluntary choice of how much to contribute to a dedicated retirement account and a rebate of the existing payroll tax that increases with the magnitude of the contribution. The main finding is that an appropriate menu of reform plans can induce the voluntary buy out of 84% of existing payroll taxes at an immediate cost to national saving of less than 0.25 percentage point.