Climate change hotspots in the United States
Climate change hotspots in the United States
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DOI：
10.1029/2008gl035075
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发表时间：
2008-08-30
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Pal, Jeremy S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.;Giorgi, Filippo;Pal, Jeremy S.
我们使用多模型、多情景气候模式组合来确定美国大陆的气候变化热点。我们的整体包括CMIP3大气-海洋环流模式，以及一个高分辨率的嵌套气候模拟系统。我们测试了高(A2)和低(B1)温室气体排放轨迹，以及识别区域气候变化热点的两种不同统计指标。我们发现，在CMIP3系综中，峰值响应性的模式在温室气体浓度、温室气体轨迹和识别方法的变化中是持久的。美国西南部和墨西哥北部地区是最持久的热点地区。高分辨率气候模拟系统在基本的GCM结构内产生高度局部化的热点，但对识别方法具有更高的敏感性。在整个整体中，相对气候变化热点的模式主要是由贡献变量的年际变异性的变化而不是长期平均水平的变化决定的。
We use a multi-model, multi-scenario climate model ensemble to identify climate change hotspots in the continental United States. Our ensemble consists of the CMIP3 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, along with a high-resolution nested climate modeling system. We test both high (A2) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emissions trajectories, as well as two different statistical metrics for identifying regional climate change hotspots. We find that the pattern of peak responsiveness in the CMIP3 ensemble is persistent across variations in GHG concentration, GHG trajectory, and identification method. Areas of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico are the most persistent hotspots. The high-resolution climate modeling system produces highly localized hotspots within the basic GCM structure, but with a higher sensitivity to the identification method. Across the ensemble, the pattern of relative climate change hotspots is shaped primarily by changes in interannual variability of the contributing variables rather than by changes in the long-term means.