Minimizing disease spread on a quarantined cruise ship: A model of COVID-19 with asymptomatic infections
Minimizing disease spread on a quarantined cruise ship: A model of COVID-19 with asymptomatic infections
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DOI：
10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108442
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发表时间：
2020-11-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Rankin, Naomi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Batista, Berlinda;Dickenson, Drew;Rankin, Naomi
2月5日，日本政府下令钻石公主号上的乘客和船员开始为期两周的隔离，此前一名前乘客被检测出COVID-19呈阳性。在隔离期间，病毒在船上迅速传播。截至2月20日，已有651例。我们用SEIR模型模拟这种隔离，包括船员和乘客在船上扮演不同角色的无症状感染者。该研究包括基本繁殖数的推导和模拟研究，显示COVID-19或流感隔离对总感染数的影响。我们表明，如果没有发现无症状感染者，在携带COVID-19的船舶上进行隔离将导致重大疾病传播。然而，如果大多数船员和乘客对COVID-19免疫或接种疫苗，那么隔离将减缓传播。我们还表明，类似于流感的疾病，即使是一艘船上有完全易感的船员和乘客，也可以通过检疫措施加以控制。
On February 5 the Japanese government ordered the passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess to start a two week quarantine after a former passenger tested positive for COVID-19. During the quarantine the virus spread rapidly throughout the ship. By February 20, there were 651 cases. We model this quarantine with a SEIR model including asymptomatic infections with differentiated shipboard roles for crew and passengers. The study includes the derivation of the basic reproduction number and simulation studies showing the effect of quarantine with COVID-19 or influenza on the total infection numbers. We show that quarantine on a ship with COVID-19 will lead to significant disease spread if asymptomatic infections are not identified. However, if the majority of the crew and passengers are immune or vaccinated to COVID-19, then quarantine would slow the spread. We also show that a disease similar to influenza, even with a ship with a fully susceptible crew and passengers, could be contained through quarantine measures.