The El Nino Southern Oscillation and malaria epidemics in South America
The El Nino Southern Oscillation and malaria epidemics in South America
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DOI：
10.1007/s00484-001-0119-6
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发表时间：
2002-05-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Bush, ABG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gagnon, AS;Smoyer-Tomic, KE;Bush, ABG
更好地了解厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）及其引起的气候异常与疟疾流行之间的关系，有助于缓解这种蚊子传播疾病在世界范围内发病率的增加。本文的目的是评估利用厄尔尼诺/南方涛动预测改善疟疾控制的可能性。本文分析了ENSO事件与南美洲一些国家（哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔、法属圭亚那、圭亚那、秘鲁、苏里南和委内瑞拉）疟疾流行的关系。在哥伦比亚、圭亚那、秘鲁和委内瑞拉，发现厄尔尼诺现象与疟疾流行之间存在统计学上的显著关系。我们证明，洪水导致疟疾流行病在北方秘鲁的干燥沿海地区，而干旱有利于发展的流行病在哥伦比亚和圭亚那，和流行病落后于干旱的一年在委内瑞拉。在巴西、法属圭亚那和厄瓜多尔，我们没有检测到ENSO/疟疾信号，杀虫剂喷洒、抗疟疾药物供应的变化和人口迁移等非气候因素可能比ENSO引起的气候异常在疟疾流行中发挥更大的作用。在一些南美国家，厄尔尼诺现象的预测显示出很大的潜力，为控制疟疾的公共卫生工作提供信息。
A better understanding of the relationship between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the climatic anomalies it engenders, and malaria epidemics could help mitigate the world-wide increase in incidence of this mosquito-transmitted disease. The purpose of this paper is to assess the possibility of using ENSO forecasts for improving malaria control. This paper analyses the relationship between ENSO events and malaria epidemics in a number of South American countries (Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname, and Venezuela). A statistically significant relationship was found between El Nino and malaria epidemics in Colombia, Guyana, Peru, and Venezuela. We demonstrate that flooding engenders malaria epidemics in the dry coastal region of northern Peru, while droughts favor the development of epidemics in Colombia and Guyana, and epidemics lag a drought by I year in Venezuela. In Brazil, French Guiana, and Ecuador, where we did not detect an ENSO/malaria signal, non-climatic factors such as insecticide sprayings, variation in availability of anti-malaria drugs, and population migration are likely to play a stronger role in malaria epidemics than ENSO-generated climatic anomalies. In some South American countries, El Nino forecasts show strong potential for informing public health efforts to control malaria.