Forecasting seasonal sargassum events across the tropical Atlantic: Overview and challenges
Forecasting seasonal sargassum events across the tropical Atlantic: Overview and challenges
复制标题
DOI：
10.3389/fmars.2022.914501
复制
发表时间：
2022-08
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
R. Marsh;H. Oxenford;Shelly-Ann Cox;Donald R. Johnson;Joshua Bellamy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Marsh;H. Oxenford;Shelly-Ann Cox;Donald R. Johnson;Joshua Bellamy
自2011年以来，马尾藻在热带大西洋的扩散引发了一系列预测方法。基于盆地尺度卫星数据的统计方法用于处理季节时间尺度。其他方法包括明确的拉格朗日计算粒子的轨迹，这些粒子代表了几天或几个月的漂移马尾藻。计算得出的马尾藻漂移是由表面洋流、风和海浪单独或多种组合作用的结果。这种计算是用观察到的表面漂移和模拟的洋流进行的，每一种都有优缺点。观测到的漂移隐含地包括风和波浪对马尾藻的作用，假定在漂浮物和马尾藻垫之间是等价的。模拟海流提供了大型网格数据集，方便了整体的计算，可以对富含涡流的海洋中固有的不确定性进行量化，进一步受到年际变化的影响。数量有限的预测说明马尾藻生物量的原地增长或损失，具有相当大的不确定性。预测提供马尾藻的非量纲指数或数量，在特定区域累积或在给定时间间隔内在特定横断面上计数。如果对特定季节的预测在广义上是一致的，那么不同预测方法的普及可能会减少不确定性，但是有空间协调具有共同地理焦点和预测变量的不同方法，以促进直接的相互比较。以预测2022年上半年马尾藻向西流入加勒比的流量为例，强调了挑战和机遇。最后，确定了互补预测方法更紧密结合的前景，以及对马尾藻管理的影响。
Proliferation of sargassum across the tropical Atlantic since 2011 has motivated a range of forecasting methods. Statistical methods based on basin-scale satellite data are used to address seasonal timescales. Other methods involve explicit Lagrangian calculations of trajectories for particles that are representative of drifting sargassum over days-months. This computed sargassum drift is attributed to the combined action of surface currents, winds and waves, individually or in various combinations. Such calculations are undertaken with both observed surface drift and simulated currents, each involving strengths and weaknesses. Observed drift implicitly includes the action on sargassum of winds and waves, assumed equivalent between drifters and sargassum mats. Simulated currents provide large gridded datasets that facilitate computation of ensembles, enabling some quantification of the uncertainty inherent in an eddy-rich ocean, further subject to interannual variability. A more limited number of forecasts account for in situ growth or loss of sargassum biomass, subject to considerable uncertainty. Forecasts provide either non-dimensional indices or quantities of sargassum, accumulated in specified areas or counted across specified transects over a given time interval. Proliferation of different forecast methodologies may reduce uncertainty, if predictions for given seasons are consistent in broad terms, but there is scope to coordinate different approaches with common geographical foci and predicted variables, to facilitate direct inter-comparisons. In an example of forecasting westward sargassum flux into the Caribbean during the first half of 2022, challenges and opportunities are highlighted. In conclusion, prospects for closer alignment of complementary forecasting methods, and implications for sargassum management, are identified.