Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia
Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia
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DOI：
10.1093/wber/12.3.419
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发表时间：
1998-09-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Williamson, JG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bloom, DE;Williamson, JG
20世纪世纪，东亚的人口结构转变-死亡率和生育率从高到低的转变-比任何其他区域或历史时期都更为剧烈。通过将人口变量引入经济增长的经验模型，本文表明，这种转变对东亚所谓的经济奇迹做出了重大贡献。这一奇迹的发生部分是因为东亚的人口结构转型导致其工作年龄人口在1965- 1990年期间的增长速度远远快于其受抚养人口的增长速度，从而扩大了东亚经济体的人均生产能力。这一效应并非不可避免，而是因为东亚国家的社会、经济和政治制度和政策使它们能够实现转型所创造的增长潜力。经验分析表明，人口增长对经济增长具有纯粹的过渡性影响;只有在受抚养人口和工作年龄人口以不同速度增长时，这种影响才会发挥作用。这些结果表明，未来的人口变化将倾向于抑制东亚的增长率，而它将促进东南亚和南亚更快的经济增长。
The demographic transition-a change from high to low rates of mortality and fertility-has been more dramatic in East Asia during the twentieth century than in any other region or historical period. By introducing demographic variables into an empirical model of economic growth, this article shows that this transition has contributed substantially to East Asia's so-called economic miracle. The miracle occurred in part because East Asia's demographic transition resulted in its working-age population growing at a much faster rate than its dependent population during 1965-90, thereby expanding the per capita productive capacity of East Asian economies. This effect was not inevitable; rather, it occurred because East Asian countries had social, economic, and political institutions and policies that allowed them to realize the growth potential created by the transition. The empirical analyses indicate that population growth has a purely transitional effect on economic growth; this effect operates only when the dependent and working-age populations are growing at different rates. These results imply that future demographic change will tend to depress growth rates in East Asia, while it will promote more rapid economic growth in Southeast and South Asia.