A model for the effect of cigarette smoking on lung cancer incidence in Connecticut.
A model for the effect of cigarette smoking on lung cancer incidence in Connecticut.
复制标题
吸烟对康涅狄格州肺癌发病率影响的模型。
DOI：
10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19960330)15:6
复制
发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
McKay,LA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Holford,TR;Zhang,Z;Zheng,T;McKay,LA
来自NCHS调查的基于人群的吸烟史数据被用于开发康涅狄格州肺癌发病率模型。吸烟流行率的趋势表明，虽然男性吸烟率的上升早于女性，但戒烟的男性吸烟者多于女性。吸烟流行率的这些趋势表明，吸烟流行率的时期效应存在显著的性别差异。在肺癌发病率模型中使用了当前吸烟者、既往吸烟者和平均吸烟持续时间的估计值。这些亚组的吸烟史与发病率之间的关系表基于队列研究的信息。模型代表了吸烟亚组的混合物，其中吸烟的影响被认为是对潜在年龄分布的倍增效应，或者是暴露水平是吸烟者风险的唯一贡献的单独效应。乘法模型解释了超过80%的时期和队列效应的偏差，而非乘法模型只能解释女性的趋势。因此，这些结果表明，相当大一部分的时期和队列贡献的肺癌发病率趋势在康涅狄格州可以归因于乘法模型，利用这种吸烟信息，虽然缺乏更详细的信息是一个限制因素，在开发模型。
Population based data on smoking history derived from NCHS surveys were used to develop a model for lung cancer incidence in Connecticut. Trends in smoking prevalence suggest that, while the prevalence in men increased earlier than women, more male smokers have quit than their female counterparts. These trends in smoking prevalence suggest striking gender differences in a period effect for the smoking prevalence. Estimates of the proportion of current smokers, ex‐smokers, and the mean duration of smoking were used in a model for the lung cancer incidence rates. The form for the relationship between smoking history and the incidence rate for these subgroups was based on information from cohort studies. The models represented a mixture of the smoking subgroups where the effect of smoking was considered to be either a multiplicative effect on the underlying age distribution, or a separate effect in which the level of exposure was the sole contribution to risk among smokers. The multiplicative model explained more than 80 per cent of the deviance for the period and cohort effects, while the non‐multiplicative model could only account for trends in females. Hence, these results suggest that a sizeable portion of the period and cohort contributions to the lung cancer incidence trends in Connecticut can be attributed to the multiplicative model that utilizes this smoking information, although the lack of more detailed information is a limiting factor in developing the model.