Modeling Supply Chains and Business Cycles as Unstable Transport Phenomena
Modeling Supply Chains and Business Cycles as Unstable Transport Phenomena
复制标题
将供应链和商业周期建模为不稳定的运输现象
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
D. Helbing
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Helbing
物理概念开发来描述不稳定性的运输流可以概括的方式，使人们能够理解众所周知的不稳定性的供应链（所谓的“牛鞭效应”）。也就是说，消费率的微小变化可能导致生产所需产品的公司的生产率的巨大变化。有趣的是，所产生的振荡具有显著低于消耗率变化的特征频率。这表明，供应链的不稳定性可能是商业周期存在的原因。同时，我们建立了一些链接排队论和微观和宏观经济学之间。
Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called “bullwhip effect”). That is, small variations in the consumption rate can cause large variations in the production rate of companies generating the requested product. Interestingly, the resulting oscillations have characteristic frequencies which are considerably lower than the variations in the consumption rate. This suggests that instabilities of supply chains may be the reason for the existence of business cycles. At the same time, we establish some link to queuing theory and between micro- and macroeconomics.