The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza
The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza
复制标题
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2009.1605
复制
发表时间：
2010-02-22
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Ajelli, Marco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Merler, Stefano;Ajelli, Marco
关于不同水平的人口异质性和不同的人口流动模式在时间和影响方面如何影响大流行性流感的进程，人们知之甚少。通过采用大规模空间显式的基于个体的模型，该模型建立在欧洲人口的高度详细的模型基础上，并在仔细分析航空和铁路运输数据的基础上，我们提供了这些因素在欧洲尺度上的影响的量化度量。我们的结果表明，欧洲必须做好应对大流行性流感迅速扩散的准备，因为人口的流动性很高，导致早期从国外输入首批病例，当地流行病高度同步。由于欧洲人口的社会人口结构存在明显差异，这种流行病在欧洲国家的影响具有很大的变数。R-0、累积发病率和最高日发病率在很大程度上取决于社会人口学参数，如家庭群体的大小和工人和学生在人口中的比例。
Little is known on how different levels of population heterogeneity and different patterns of human mobility affect the course of pandemic influenza in terms of timing and impact. By employing a large-scale spatially explicit individual-based model, founded on a highly detailed model of the European populations and on a careful analysis of air and railway transportation data, we provide quantitative measures of the influence of such factors at the European scale. Our results show that Europe has to be prepared to face a rapid diffusion of a pandemic influenza, because of the high mobility of the population, resulting in the early importation of the first cases from abroad and highly synchronized local epidemics. The impact of the epidemic in European countries is highly variable because of the marked differences in the sociodemographic structure of European populations. R-0, cumulative attack rate and peak daily attack rate depend heavily on sociodemographic parameters, such as the size of household groups and the fraction of workers and students in the population.