Multi-hazard risks in New York City
Multi-hazard risks in New York City
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-18-3363-2018
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发表时间：
2018-12-21
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
McPhearson, Timon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Depietri, Yaella;Dahal, Khila;McPhearson, Timon
大城市主要集中在海岸线上，这使它们面临着各种各样的自然灾害。对城市气候灾害风险的评估很少能捕捉到复杂城市系统中发生的多重相互作用。提出了一种改进的城市多灾种风险评估方法。然后，我们分析了纽约市的风险，作为一个案例研究，应用增强的多灾害风险评估方法，考虑到在这个沿海特大城市暴露于多种自然灾害的历史，这些自然灾害在空间上重叠，在某些情况下，在时间上重叠。我们的目标是确定多灾害风险的热点，以支持适应战略的优先级，从而解决城市居民的多重风险来源。我们利用社会经济指标在高空间分辨率下评估了三种气候相关灾害（即热浪、内陆洪水和沿海洪水）的脆弱性和风险。该分析结合了当地专家的意见，确定了多灾种风险的来源，并确定了多灾种风险评估中使用的指标权重。结果表明，多灾种风险评价方法在沿海特大城市的应用表明，多灾种风险的空间热点影响着沿海相似的当地居民社区。分析表明，纽约市应优先考虑沿海地区的适应，并考虑可能的协同作用和/或权衡，以最大限度地发挥适应和恢复力干预措施在空间重叠地区受到多种灾害影响的风险。
Megacities are predominantly concentrated along coastlines, making them exposed to a diverse mix of natural hazards. The assessment of climatic hazard risk to cities rarely has captured the multiple interactions that occur in complex urban systems. We present an improved method for urban multi-hazard risk assessment. We then analyze the risk of New York City as a case study to apply enhanced methods for multi-hazard risk assessment given the history of exposure to multiple types of natural hazards which overlap spatially and, in some cases, temporally in this coastal megacity. Our aim is to identify hotspots of multi-hazard risk to support the prioritization of adaptation strategies that can address multiple sources of risk to urban residents. We used socioeconomic indicators to assess vulnerabilities and risks to three climate-related hazards (i.e., heat waves, inland flooding and coastal flooding) at high spatial resolution. The analysis incorporates local experts' opinions to identify sources of multi-hazard risk and to weight indicators used in the multi-hazard risk assessment. Results demonstrate the application of multi-hazard risk assessment to a coastal megacity and show that spatial hotspots of multi-hazard risk affect similar local residential communities along the coastlines. Analyses suggest that New York City should prioritize adaptation in coastal zones and consider possible synergies and/or trade-offs to maximize impacts of adaptation and resilience interventions in the spatially overlapping areas at risk of impacts from multiple hazards.