Comparative and joint prediction of DUI recidivism from alcohol ignition interlock and driver records
Comparative and joint prediction of DUI recidivism from alcohol ignition interlock and driver records
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DOI：
10.15288/jsa.2003.64.83
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发表时间：
2003-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Voas, RB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Marques, PR;Tippetts, AS;Voas, RB
目的：这项工作进行，以找到实际的预测，预计驾驶的影响下（DUI）的罪犯将继续酒后驾车后，一段时间的酒精点火联锁控制的驾驶结束。互锁通过在允许发动机起动之前要求低血液酒精浓度（BAC）呼吸样本来防止受损的驾驶。记录每次呼吸测试。该研究评估了联锁记录作为未来DUI犯罪相对于驾驶员记录和自我报告项目的预测因素。方法：受试者是加拿大阿尔伯塔的2,273名DUI罪犯，他们使用互锁来获得完全恢复驾驶特权;对于2,134人，安装时间从5到30个月不等。平均每安装一天记录8.1次呼吸测试;在车辆使用的每一天进行9.9次测试（4.3次启动加上5.6次运行复检）。通过敏感性和生存率分析比较后联锁重复DUI的预测因素。结果如下：尽管在前5个月内，69%的联锁装置使用者至少有一次BAC测试大于或等于0.04%（“失败”测试），但只有9%的联锁装置拆除后4年内再次被定罪。失败的联锁测试成比例的所有BAC测试采取的是最好的预测司机累犯的风险在几年后联锁拆除。结论：互锁记录提供了新的信息，特别是关于司机没有以前的DUI罪行。先前的移动违规和驾驶，而暂停定罪，虽然比问卷调查数据更好的预测，比联锁记录和先前的DUI犯罪较差。酒精联锁，已经被认为是一个有用的控制装置，值得注意的DUI预测以及。(J. Stud. Alcohol 64：83-92，2003）。
Objective: This work was conducted to find practical predictors that anticipate which driving under the influence (DUI) offenders will continue to drink and drive after a period of alcohol ignition interlock-controlled driving ends. The interlock prevents impaired driving by requiring a low blood alcohol concentration (BAC) breath sample before allowing an engine to start. Each breath test is recorded. The study evaluated the interlock record as a predictor of future DUI offenses relative to driver records and self-report items. Method: Subjects were 2,273 DUI offenders in Alberta, Canada, who used an interlock to gain full reinstatement of driving privileges; for 2,134, the installed periods ranged from 5 to 30 months. A median of 8.1 breath tests was logged for each installed day; 9.9 tests were taken on each day of vehicle use (4.3 starts plus 5.6 running retests). Predictors of postinterlock repeat DUI were compared by sensitivity and survival analyses. Results: Although 69% of all interlock users had at least one BAC test greater than or equal to.04% (a "fail" test) within the first 5 months, only 9% were reconvicted up to 4 years after interlock removal. Failed interlock tests proportional to all BAC tests taken was the best predictor of driver recidivism risk during the years following interlock removal. Conclusion: The interlock record provides new information, particularly about drivers with no prior DUI offenses. Prior moving violations and driving while suspended convictions, although better predictors than questionnaire data, were poorer than interlock records and prior DUI offenses. The alcohol interlock, already recognized as a useful control device, warrants attention for DUI prediction as well. (J. Stud. Alcohol 64: 83-92, 2003).